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What will matter in Nigeria in 2026 12 Jan 2026

What will matter for societal progress in Nigeria in 2026 is not ritualistic policymaking – definitely not the 2026 budget. Like the previous ones in recent years, the 2025 budget was a failure. When the tax reform bills were introduced last year, I feared that their passage and implementation would merely write a new chapter in Nigeria’s public policy failure at transformation. This was without prejudice to the technical changes that the laws would introduce in the country’s fiscal management. I thought higher tax revenue would not make a clear difference in the country’s economic reality, and the laws would not be implemented without fear or favour. 

Some things are more important than policy in governance. They include ethics and integrity, institutional culture, government’s legitimacy, and public trust.

Before the commencement of the new tax regime, scheduled for January 2026, news broke about discrepancies in the tax bills passed by the National Assembly and versions of the tax laws gazetted. This has further discredited another reform that is bound to inflict more economic hardship on the people.

A positive outlook for Nigeria in 2026 rests on the government's commitment to genuine self-reform and the citizens' response to the new socioeconomic landscape. The year will definitely test the resilience of the people. But during nearly two-thirds of its first term, the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration has formed its character. Nigerians are not happy with what they have seen unfold. A lack of fiscal discipline and transparency was exemplified by the revelation that only 17,7 per cent of the capital votes in the 2025 budget had been released by the end of the third quarter of the year. And contrary to the President’s claim that the revenue targets for the year had been met at the end of August, the government actually recorded a whopping N30 trillion revenue shortfall. This information came to light in the course of procedural budgetary reviews preceding the presentation of the 2026 appropriation bill. Scandalous as this was, it surprised few people.

Another character trait of the administration is perversion of the social discount rate (SDR). The SDR represents the value a society places on the welfare of its future generations by the cost it bears today. The Tinubu administration enunciated reforms that putatively prioritise future economic benefit while causing acute immediate pain. Yet it is shoddily implementing the reforms, undermining the realisation of the touted future gains. Therefore, his key reforms have tended to undermine the welfare of the people in the present and the future. The regulatory woes in the oil industry, brought to light with the commencement of production at the Dangote refinery, provide an exemplification. Another is the failure of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), under the Tinubu-appointed Board of Governors, to clearly anchor inflationary expectations, keeping interest rates high while inflation rates are sharply trending downwards, according to official data.
 
Despite the removal of energy subsidies, devaluation of the naira, and increased government revenue, government projects are not being well implemented, and unemployment and poverty are biting the populace harder. In place of competent implementation and performance evaluation of the government’s policies are intrigues and propaganda. It should also be noted that the government has continued to focus on stakeholders that it attaches importance to, such as the two other arms of government, politicians relevant to the president’s reelection calculus, and some other influential leaders. The plight of the youth, to whom the future belongs, is ignored.

If the government were to change its approach to governance, it would inevitably review its current policies. The citizens would likely respond by cooperating more with the government, which is essential for its success. Perhaps it is too late to expect these to happen. Electioneering for the 2027 election would likely serve as a negative incentive for the government to adopt an approach that prioritises the people’s welfare. This is hugely ironic, making Nigeria’s democracy a joke.

The gathering momentum against the implementation of the new tax laws from this January by opposition parties and some civic actors indicates the government is not trusted with such a key reform. But the masses also need to voice their concerns. If they don’t, the government will likely view the current resistance as par for the course: partisan politics playing itself out about 14 months to the next general election. The government would be denied critical feedback that it needs to be more considerate in policymaking. The assumption is that the government already knows that the policy is unpopular. But change is often met with resistance despite its apparent benefits. Citizens' action is necessary to have the government reconsider the appropriateness and effectiveness of its policies, not just the tax reform.

Similar challenges that the country faces today dot its historical landscape. In 1999, President Olusegun Obasanjo was beholden to the political elite who helped him to power. However, after the economy faltered in much of his first term, he had to change course during his second term, assembling a young and competent team to run a technocratic administration. His reform delivered palpable benefits and helped to shape his positive legacy. At other times, the people, especially Nigerians in their youth, reacted appropriately to political challenges, serving as a force for change. My upcoming book explores these themes. Watch out. And Happy New Year!