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The complexity and complication of Nigeria’s insecurity 09 Dec 2025

President Donald Trump and some members of the U.S. government have said a “genocide” against Christians is happening in Nigeria. This could be the way Trump and those who share his view in the government have summarised the acute incidents of insecurity in Nigeria. It could also be a view that makes it convenient for the US to intervene in the lingering and deadly Nigerian security crises. Either of these is problematic. A narrow view of such a complex Nigerian insecurity is inadequate. And an intervention that proceeds from it can complicate the problem.

Nigerian government officials and many independent commentators have argued that the American portrayal of the security crises in Nigeria is misinformed. They contend that the issue is complex, whereas the US understanding of it is overly simplistic. The Nigerian government, however, claims to be baffled by the insecurity challenge. It often refuses to identify the perpetrators, describe the elements of the insecurity, and remains ineffective in tackling the situation.

But the problem is not so complex that it is inscrutable. The Nigerian security challenge is fundamentally driven by the terrorist activities of Boko Haram and its affiliates, who want to establish an Islamic caliphate stretching southward from northern Nigeria. While the current terrorist actors are relatively new, the idea of Islamising the country is not new. It has involved the introduction of Sharia in Muslim-majority northern states of the country, which remains constitutionally secular. This indicates – and it is quite well known for a fact – that elements within the government are more than supporters of the insidious Islamisation agenda.

The powerful support for the agenda has enabled the terrorists to build up arms, militarising communal crises in the Middle Belt of the country, where large Christian populations had previously been less vulnerable to attacks by their radicalised fellow Muslim citizens. It has also enabled the arming of the traditionally nomadic Fulani herdsmen, emboldening them to trample on the property rights of farming communities. This trend is unfolding even as the climate change crisis is forcing northern herders to move southward to graze their cattle. And with more weapons in the hands of people who feel they have powerful support to use them, activities such as cattle rustling and kidnapping for ransom have spiked, with ransom payments helping the perpetrators to increase their weapon supplies.

The government’s inadequate security response, unwillingness to bring perpetrators to book, and corruption have served as incentives for crimes, including kidnapping for ransom, in other parts of the country. Misgovernance has also weakened national cohesion, with various ethnic agitators tending towards an armed struggle. Its negative economic repercussions have seen desperate citizens engaging in various other crimes.

The complexity of Nigeria’s insecurity lies not solely in the different types of incidents. It is also about how the incidents are layered. More layers of the problem will develop, and the existing ones will become more formidable, without effective solutions. Nevertheless, the situation should not baffle a government that is serious and capable of fulfilling its constitutional duty of securing life and property.

However, countering the problem has become very complicated. First, a US military intervention in Nigeria on behalf of Christians would be quite divisive and have lasting repercussions. With Trump’s reticence about “forever wars” and preference for optics over effectiveness, he is likely to approve only limited actions that may immediately disrupt the terrorists. While no world power would want to confront the US over Nigeria, the surviving terrorists may find sympathisers (internal and external) who could help them to regroup, rearm, and resume attacks against Christians in the country.

Second, Nigerian leaders are divided about fighting Islamist terrorism. Many northern Muslim leaders, including some of those in government, are sympathetic to the terrorists. They see them first as fellow Muslims. With religion as a rallying point in Nigeria’s politics, southern politicians are mindful of the north’s support. Without such support, politicians who are unpopular in their southern regions would lose any chance of electoral success. This is the calculation Bola Ahmed Tinubu made in 2023, and which the President is bound to make again in 2027 to have a chance at a second term. 

Third, the military has struggled to crush the terrorists, among other things, due to limited professionalism and infiltration by the terrorists or sabotage by officers sympathetic to the terrorists. A high cost of the Fourth Republic’s endurance is the decline in military professionalism. The appointment of less senior officers as service chiefs, often based on loyalty to the president, typically results in the premature retirement of more experienced senior officers. There have also been cases where military budgets have been diverted for campaign financing. And with Nigeria’s endemic corruption, the military may not have been spared. Recently, military officers going on an operation were ambushed by terrorists. The leader of the team who had escaped the ambush attack was captured and murdered by the terrorists as he shared information about his location with his colleagues.

Nigeria's insecurity, while complex, is neither insurmountable nor best addressed through external military intervention, but rather through internal political will and systemic reform. In the immediate term, President Tinubu should reorient state security and equip it to protect the Nigerian populace and not just the elites. He should supervise an audit of the military to purge it of officers adjudged as disloyal to Nigeria’s constitutional order. For the long term, Nigerians should mobilise to elect a president and other leaders they trust to protect them, rather than accepting leaders who impose themselves through manipulation or force. As I argue in my forthcoming book, the youth should take political mobilisation as a personal responsibility.

Jide Akintunde is the Managing Editor of Financial Nigeria publications.