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Tinubu’s forged economic progress 09 Mar 2026

Empires, civilisations, and nations are built on blood. In a personal sense, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his acolytes have spent three years fortifying their own ‘empires.’ Yet, he is failing at the more noble task of nation-building. Whatever economic progress is currently claimed has been bought at the cost of the blood and livelihoods of the Nigerian people.

Since assuming the presidency in May 2023, Tinubu has rapidly consolidated his grip on power. The legislature has fallen in line, and the judiciary no longer appears to be a check on executive overreach. At least seven state governors elected on the opposition PDP platform have already defected to the ruling APC, leaving notable politicians who remain in opposition parties increasingly endangered. With off-cycle elections yielding questionable outcomes that favour the ruling party, the landscape has become dystopian under an unchecked monolith, rather than heralding a new era of political sophistication.

In contrast, the economic front reveals recent positive indicators. From 34.80 per cent in December 2024, headline inflation decelerated to 15.10 per cent by January 2026. The naira has appreciated from its parallel market trough of N1,825 in February 2024 to the current N1,340, with official and BDC rates finally converging. While growth remains below peak trends, it has clawed its way back from the depths of recessions and stagnation that characterised the administration of the late President Muhammadu Buhari.

In a recent discussion with a global investor regarding Nigeria’s outlook, the focus was clear: government bonds, equities, and asset management. They were well-attuned to the macroeconomic indicators that have signalled a green light for Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI). My role was to provide the policy context, and I maintained that Nigeria has moved past the extreme, policy-driven volatility that defined the period from mid-2023 through late 2025. For the global financial elite, the storm is over.

Nigeria has once again become a buoyant playground for portfolio investment. Local investors, weathering acute shocks in the productive sector, have been hedging their bets in public sector securities. At last, the promised – if chimerical – gains of President Tinubu’s 'difficult' but 'necessary' reforms have arrived. This 'recovery' is being toasted by fund managers in London, New York, other global financial hubs, and the boardrooms of Lagos Marina, even as the real economy – the one that produces goods and feeds families – remains in the shadows.

One cannot diminish Tinubu’s macroeconomic feats, however debt-driven they may be. To do so would be futile. Between June 2023 and September 2025, N65.91 trillion was added to the public debt, excluding exchange rate revaluation. During this same window, debt service expenditure reached an estimated N21.5 trillion, as investors extracted significant profit from the country’s sovereign obligations. Buoyed by these FPI inflows, CBN reserves climbed to a staggering $50.45 billion by mid-February 2026, the highest level in thirteen years. 

But this progress is on credit, and the CBN is in no hurry to unwind its dalliance with FPIs. Despite headline inflation plummeting by more than 1,970 basis points since December 2024, the Central Bank has reduced its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by a mere 100 basis points. The anchor interest rate remains at a stratospheric 26.50 per cent following the February 2026 MPC decision. This suggests a policy bias that keeps rates high to entice foreign dollars.

Admittedly, an FPI-led strategy can buoy the broader economy, but any positive impact percolates agonisingly slowly through the social structure. Such gains are largely captured at the top, harnessed by corporate investors and high-net-worth individuals, while the benefits rarely reach the base of the economic pyramid, where the majority of Nigerians struggle to survive.

As the Nigerian economy finally finds its footing, we must confront the heavy price of its new foundation. While the financial costs are staggering, this emerging economic edifice is built upon the ruins of collapsed businesses, vanished savings, and the diminished dreams of an entire generation of youth. We are witnessing a nation in recovery, but it is a recovery rising from the literal and figurative ‘blood’ of our most vulnerable citizens – those whose livelihoods and dignity have been lost.

This recovery is etched against the backdrop of devastating reform. We must remember the millions who have fallen into deep poverty and the middle class, still reeling from crushing blows, as they remain on the canvas. We must not overlook the entrepreneurs who watched in horror as their thriving enterprises succumbed to policy shocks, nor those once-buoyant businesses now gasping for breath. Their sacrifice was not a choice; it was an extraction, a forced contribution to a stability they may never live to enjoy.

While writing my inaugural book over the past year, due for release mid this year, I have ruminated on Nigeria’s trajectory since 1914. A recurring, tragic theme since independence in 1960 has been the profound lack of thoughtfulness from its leaders. Today, both President Tinubu’s legacy and the nation’s future are ensnared in yet another cycle of thoughtless policy, one that prioritises short-term solutions over a sustainable, human-centric vision for the Nigerian state.

This economic advance is unsustainable. Conventional wisdom predicts it will buckle under 2027’s election-cycle political risk, but I suspect this administration will simply double down on its stratagem. Yet, history is clear: wherever financial engineering trumps real economic substance, the era inevitably concludes in profound financial and economic carnage.