Menu

Nigeria at the precipice of a Hobbesian state 08 Jul 2026

Devoid of the luxury of diplomatic phrasing, I find it necessary to address contemporary Nigeria's significant shift towards a Hobbesian state. Recent data indicate a troubling rise in attacks, kidnappings, and fatalities linked to banditry and terrorism, highlighting a concerning trend in insecurity. The current state of affairs resembles a trajectory pushing Nigeria towards an explosive implosion, akin to historical political collapses. This stems from the myriad challenges confronting the Nigerian state, especially rising insecurity, diminishing state authority, a faltering economy, and a widespread legitimacy crisis across multiple fronts.

The intricate issue of insecurity, coupled with a fragile economy, has emerged as a significant impediment to stability and development in Nigeria. In recent years, the country has witnessed an alarming surge in terrorism, banditry, insurgency, militancy, violent conflicts, communal clashes, and gunrunning, all of which have instilled widespread fear and disruption among its population. Armed groups persistently commit egregious crimes such as murder, rape, kidnapping, and cattle rustling – acts that clearly fall under crimes against humanity. Moreover, these terrorists and armed bandits often seize large swathes of farmland, compelling communities and farmers to abandon their land in fear of attacks. This chaos is gradually undermining, both overtly and covertly, the nation’s sovereignty and social cohesion, thereby obstructing economic growth and development.

Insecurity in Nigeria has resulted in a significant number of casualties. While comprehensive data on the exact number of fatalities is not readily available, insecurity has led to the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives. Reported figures may vary depending on the specific timeframe examined and the organisations reporting them. Numerous entities have documented the considerable human toll associated with terrorism, banditry, conflicts between herders and farmers, and gang violence.

For instance, the 2026 Global Terrorism Index indicated that nearly 70 per cent of global terrorism-related fatalities occurred in just five countries: Pakistan, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Niger, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Notably, six of the ten nations most affected by terrorism are in sub-Saharan Africa, which has emerged as the global epicentre of this phenomenon. The report designates Nigeria as the fourth most-affected country by terrorism worldwide, with a score of 7.792. Furthermore, it documents that Nigeria recorded the largest increase in 2025, with fatalities rising by 46 per cent to 750. The findings also reveal that 80 per cent of all terrorism-related fatalities stem from the activities of Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP).

In another dimension, the Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported 614,937 deaths attributed to insecurity between May 2023 and April 2024. According to the report, which sparked controversy, rural areas recorded 335,827 murders, while urban areas accounted for 279,110. The NBS also noted that over 2.2 million Nigerians were kidnapped, and a total of N2.2 trillion (approximately $1.4 billion) was paid in ransom. These statistics are staggering and indicate the profound challenges Nigeria faces due to insecurity, which, to a considerable extent, is undermining its sovereignty.

Today, countries in the West African Sahel, such as Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria, are experiencing a sovereignty crisis largely fuelled by insecurity. These nations are grappling with threats from transnational terrorist groups and criminal organisations, while also facing an increasing risk of political instability. Groups such as Boko Haram, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (IS-Sahel), ISWAP, and various splinter factions operate with relative impunity. As this crisis deepens, Nigeria has become a hub for gunrunning. The Institute for Security Studies estimates that between 6 million and 350 million illegal small arms and light weapons are circulating in Nigeria. The country is said to account for 70 per cent of the 500 million illegal weapons present in West Africa. 

Non-state actors exploit the region’s porous borders, weak institutional frameworks, and existing ties between criminal networks and terrorist organisations. Evidence suggests that some of these national governments have not only been increasingly losing control of substantial segments of their territory, but also have a tenuous grip on the affected regions and on activities within these territories controlled by terrorists and bandits. Indeed, what we are seeing today is evidence of nations that are failing or collapsing. The 2003 European Security Strategy identified terrorism as one of the "obvious threats" linked to state failure.

The multi-billion-dollar question that should now trouble us is whether Nigeria is an insecure, failing, or collapsing state. While this article is not conclusive on this point, evidence suggests that Nigeria is fast approaching a “Hobbesian state”, grappling with a range of issues characteristic of state failure or collapse. Countries within this purview generally share several overlapping conditions, such as a) armed conflict and violence; b) ongoing wars, regional conflicts, or heavy insurgent/militant presence; c) state fragility: extreme political instability and a weak rule of law; and d) humanitarian crises: massive internal displacement, lack of essential services, and severe economic collapse.

Beyond escalating insecurity and violence, Nigeria currently grapples with a myriad of other challenges, including governance challenges, a fragile domestic economy, institutional failures, and pervasive corruption. In this turbulent environment, the struggle for resources and survival has given rise to disorder, echoing Thomas Hobbes' characterisation of life without a strong central authority as "nasty, brutish, and short." 

Nigeria is Africa's third-largest economy, trailing only South Africa and Egypt in total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $377.37 billion, according to the International Monetary Fund, and ranks 52nd globally. However, this relative wealth has left many citizens in poverty, and the country has the highest absolute number of people living in extreme poverty worldwide.

Amid Nigeria’s turmoil, pressing questions emerge: What solutions lie ahead? What specific reforms can the government undertake to prevent the nation from descending into disorder, as articulated by the philosopher Thomas Hobbes? The greatest part of the solution lies in governance. A society without effective governance can devolve into a "war of all against all".

Without mincing words, Nigeria’s current profound and multifaceted crisis starkly exposes the shortcomings of its governance structures in addressing pervasive lawlessness and escalating insecurity. This situation has become a significant challenge, underscoring the critical importance of governance in curbing the widespread chaos that threatens to engulf the country and ruin its social fabric. 

It is imperative for the Nigerian government to recognise that the very concept of statehood rests on citizens surrendering a portion of their individual freedoms to a centralised authority, or sovereign, in exchange for security and the maintenance of the social contract. This social contract is not an abstract principle. It is a tangible bond and obligation that the government must uphold to ensure the well-being of its citizens. 

When the state fails to effectively monopolise violence and protect its citizens, it fundamentally undermines the social contract, implying a dissolution of the mutual obligations that bind government and society. This will lead to two outcomes: widespread insecurity, on a scale that will challenge the government's ability to maintain order, and the erosion of legitimacy. When formal state apparatuses are incapable of projecting authority uniformly, citizens will be left vulnerable and will be prompted to rely on self-help, local vigilantes, or ethnic militias.

As the state experiences a decline in its functional legitimacy, when it is perceived as an impediment to the collective will of the populace, the government's moral authority is significantly weakened. Under such conditions, its capacity to elicit loyalty and obedience from citizens is notably diminished. This erosion of trust and authority is exemplified by the rise in terrorism, banditry, insurgency, and militancy, alongside the protests and demonstrations that have consistently occurred across Nigeria. These actions serve as means for citizens to express their frustrations and to demand accountability, effective governance, and the restoration of their rights to security and freedom. 

To tackle these challenges effectively, the Nigerian government must implement a comprehensive set of reforms that prioritise stability, security, and the vital restoration of trust and engagement between the state and its citizens. This requires a thorough review of existing governance frameworks, a renewed commitment to the rule of law, and transparent mechanisms to address grievances and ensure active public participation in the democratic process. Only through these decisive reforms can Nigeria restore order and build a resilient society capable of overcoming the current crisis.

The necessary reforms are not mere policy adjustments; they are crucial to restoring stability and re-establishing a sense of safety and public order. These reforms must strike a firm balance between the exercise of authority and the preservation of civil liberties, ensuring that individuals' rights and freedoms are upheld even as public safety is prioritised.

Efem N. Ubi is a Professor at the Institute of African Studies, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua, China, and former Director of Research and Studies at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, Lagos, Nigeria.