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Global youth unemployment is rising as stagnant economic growth and weak job creation push more young people out of work, education, or training, according to a new report from the International Labour Organisation (ILO). But while the global picture is deteriorating, the situation for young Nigerians remains uniquely complex: official youth unemployment is relatively low, yet the broader reality of underemployment, informal work, and declining well-being paints a more troubling picture.

The ILO’s Global Employment Trends for Youth 2026: Back to the Future report shows that the global youth unemployment rate climbed to 12.4% in 2025, representing 67 million unemployed people aged 15-24. The share of young people not in employment, education or training (NEET) also rose to 20%, affecting more than 257 million people worldwide. The organisation warns that slowing economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and rapid technological change are pushing countries toward a new youth jobs crisis.

ILO Director General Gilbert F. Houngbo said the consequences are far-reaching: “A generation that cannot find decent work cannot build its future with confidence. When young people are locked out of quality employment, countries lose talent, productivity and social cohesion.”

Nigeria’s official youth unemployment rate stood at 5.3% in 2025, according to the World Bank’s ILO modelled estimates. While this figure is far below global averages, it masks deeper structural challenges. Most young Nigerians cannot afford to remain unemployed and instead enter informal or unstable work, often characterised by low earnings, limited job security, and no social protection.

The World Bank data show that youth unemployment in Nigeria has trended downward from a peak of 10.8% in 2020, but this decline reflects the reality that young people are pushed into informal work rather than being absorbed into productive, well-paid jobs. 

For millions of young Nigerians, the real challenge is not unemployment alone but underemployment, skills mismatches, and poor job quality. Rising living costs, limited access to credit, and weak social protection systems have further eroded the well-being of young people, many of whom struggle to transition into stable adulthood.

The ILO report notes that middle-skilled jobs – traditionally entry points for young workers – are shrinking worldwide. Clerical roles, administrative jobs, manufacturing-related occupations, and some technical positions have declined sharply since 2023. In higher-income economies, youth unemployment has risen significantly, with Northern America climbing from 8.3% in 2023 to 9.8% in 2025, and youth unemployment in Northern, Southern and Western Europe remaining high at 15%.

In developing economies, including Nigeria, the challenge is different: there are too few decent jobs to absorb growing youth populations. Nearly nine in ten young workers aged 15–29 in low- and lower-middle-income countries are employed informally, the report finds. Sub-Saharan Africa faces particularly strong demographic pressures, with more young people entering NEET status as job creation lags behind population growth.

The report highlights the growing influence of artificial intelligence (AI) on youth employment. It estimates that 6.1% of jobs held by young people aged 15–29 are in occupations highly exposed to AI-related changes, many of which overlap with declining middle-skilled roles. At the same time, demand is rising in knowledge-based technical fields such as science, health, and engineering.

ILO employment director Sukti Dasgupta warned that while the full impact of AI remains uncertain, countries must invest in skills, lifelong learning, and social protection to ensure young people can adapt and seize new opportunities.

The ILO urges governments to adopt human-centred approaches to AI governance, invest in quality education and apprenticeships, strengthen employment services, and expand social protection. The report emphasises that the challenge is not only to create more jobs for young people but to ensure those jobs provide security, dignity, and pathways to successful adulthood.

For Nigeria, the findings underscore a critical truth: while official youth unemployment appears low, the lived reality for young Nigerians – marked by informal work, rising economic pressures, and limited access to decent job opportunities – demands urgent policy attention. Without targeted investment in skills, job creation, and social protection, the country risks deepening the disconnect between its youth population and the labour market that should sustain their future.