Cheta Nwanze, Lead Partner, SBM Intelligence
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Subjects of Interest
- Fiscal Policy
- Geopolitical Analysis
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What Gloria's story tells us about Nigeria's wasted generation 12 Mar 2026
I recently read a story in the Punch newspaper that broke my heart. Gloria Agu studied Computer Science at Auchi Polytechnic, graduating with first-class honours in 2022. She endured the strikes, the poor facilities, and the constant financial strain that defines the Nigerian student experience. She believed, as generations before her did, that academic excellence would be her ticket to a decent life. She did everything right. Yet today, at 29, she works as a security officer on the Lagos–Ibadan Expressway, earning N50,000 ($37) a month after 24-hour shifts that leave her eyelids drooping with exhaustion.
"I struggled through school and graduated with good grades, and then came out to nothing stable or 'suitable’," she told the Punch. "You did what you were told. You endured strikes, poor facilities, lack of money, and physical and mental stress, and still graduated. So when the reward doesn't come, it feels unfair, almost insulting".
Gloria is not an exception. She is the rule. And her story tells us something uncomfortable about the country we have built.
The official statistics are a mess, as usual. The National Bureau of Statistics will give you one figure, the International Labour Organisation another, and neither will capture the reality of a young person hawking recharge cards on a Lagos street with a degree tucked away somewhere. What we know is this: prominent universities produced over 3,400 first-class graduates between 2024 and 2026. The University of Lagos alone produced 617 in January 2026. These are not the bottom of the barrel; these are the best we have to offer.
Yet the economy cannot absorb them. And here is where the conversation gets complicated. The easy narrative is to blame the system, and the system deserves plenty of blame. But there is another layer that makes us uncomfortable: the growing gap between what graduates bring to the table and what employers need.
We talk endlessly about unemployment, as if the only problem is a shortage of jobs. The reality is messier. A BusinessDay analysis found that 85 per cent of graduates lack basic digital competencies essential for entry-level roles. The Lagos Economic Development Update shows that while roughly 3,300 jobseekers compete for 2,800 monthly vacancies, a quarter of them lack both education and experience entirely. These are not people the system has failed; they are people the system never reached.
The problem is not that young Nigerians lack talent. It is that the institutions meant to convert that talent into productive capability have collapsed. Our universities, starved of funding for decades, churn out graduates with certificates but without skills. The curriculum remains stubbornly theoretical, unchanged for years, disconnected from what actual employers need. The Academic Staff Union of Universities' strikes mean that many graduates spent four or five years on campus but received barely eighteen months of instruction. The gaps in their knowledge are not their fault, but they carry the consequences.
We have tried many interventions. The numbers look impressive on paper. The Mastercard Foundation and Jobberman trained over 2.4 million youth in job-readiness. Less than 10 per cent secured dignified work through the initiative. The Nigeria Jubilee Fellows Programme placed more than 14,000 graduates in 12-month fellowships. Fewer than 2,000 remain in sustainable employment today. N-Power enrolled over 1.5 million. Fewer than 15 per cent transitioned to gainful employment after the programme.
Across major youth initiatives, estimates suggest that less than 13 per cent of beneficiaries move into meaningful work over time. As one analyst put it recently, "If governments and development partners keep pushing empowerment without institutional follow-through, we're not empowering, we're exhausting the productivity of our young workforce".
This is the cruel trick we have played on this generation. We told them to be resilient, to hustle, to never give up. But resilience without structure is just burnout in disguise. We have outsourced survival to the individual while the institutions that should support them rot.
This is not just a human tragedy; it is an economic catastrophe unfolding in slow motion. The ILO projects that closing skills gaps could add 5-6 per cent to Nigeria's GDP. That is the growth we are leaving on the table because we cannot align education with opportunity.
Consider what happens when a first-class Computer Science graduate works as a security guard. Her potential productivity, the innovation she might have contributed, the taxes she might have paid, all of it is lost. The economy does not just fail her; it fails itself. We celebrate our youth population as a "demographic dividend," but a demographic dividend is not automatic. It requires investment in human capital. Without that investment, the youth bulge becomes a demographic disaster.
Gloria's voice captures something that statistics cannot. "I feel exhausted, not just physically, but spiritually”, she told The Punch. "On many days, I ask myself, 'How many more hoops am I supposed to jump through?' The hustle never really stops. I also struggle with self-doubt. Even when you know it's not your fault, your mind starts asking dangerous questions like, 'Am I not good enough?' 'Did I choose the wrong course?' 'Was all that suffering for nothing?'"
This is the hidden cost of the crisis: the slow erosion of hope. When a generation stops believing that effort pays off, they stop making the effort. They leave, they disengage, or they turn to whatever alternatives present themselves. The Japa syndrome is not a mystery; it is a rational response to an environment that offers no returns on investment.
The government's new secondary school curriculum, scheduled for 2025/2026, embeds digital literacy and practical trade subjects. The IDEAS project has trained 26,000 youths with support from the World Bank. Private-sector initiatives, such as Nigerian Bottling Company's #YouthEmpowered programme, have impacted over 70,000 young people. These are steps, not a strategy.
What we need is a fundamental realignment. Early skills exposure through secondary education reform. Market-linked technical and vocational training with verifiable employment outcomes. Industry co-ownership of training pipelines. Labour market intelligence that actually guides adjustment. None of this is impossible. Other countries have done it. The question is whether we have the political will to stop treating youth empowerment as a photo opportunity and start treating it as what it is: the single most important investment we can make.
Gloria Agu deserves better. So do the 3,400 first-class graduates produced in the last two years. So do the millions of young Nigerians hustling daily with nothing to show for it. The question is not whether they are ready for the economy. The question is whether the economy is ready for them. And the answer, so far, is a shameful no.
Cheta Nwanze is the Founder of SBM Intelligence.



