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Emerging markets economist Peter Montalto of Nomura believes that South African president Jacob Zuma could be recalled by the ANC if the party performs poorly in the May 2016 local elections.

Montalto refers to such a move as “Zumxit” and says what would follow would be a layer of new, more left-wing policies, including an accelerated implementation of the national minimum wage.

He said weak growth, inflationary pressure and possible downgrade of governmental agency bond issuers are in his outlook for South Africa.

“We see no broader shifts in policy that would boost growth during the year, while the SA Reserve Bank attends to increasing inflationary pressures (we revise up our inflation forecast significantly to an average of 6.4% in 2016), rather than just addressing inflationary risks, which was a 2015 theme.

“We expect only 0.9% growth (vs 1.6% previously) as the economy digests the risk premia impact of the presidential reshuffle, as well as mining restructuring and the full implications of a global terms-of-trade shock.”