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Global deal activity has experienced a decline during the first three quarters (Q1-Q3) of 2025, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. 

The decline reflects a shift in deal-making sentiments amid ongoing economic uncertainties, says GlobalData, in its analysis shared with Financial Nigeria. The total number of deals (comprising mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity, and venture financing deals) announced globally fell by around 4% during Q1-Q3 2025 compared to the same period in the previous year. 

An analysis of GlobalData’s Deals Database revealed that all the deal types under coverage, as well as all the regions, registered year-on-year (YoY) decline, while performance across different key markets remained a mixed bag.

M&A activity, which has historically driven the overall deal activity, recorded a decrease of around 3% YoY during Q1-Q3 2025. This decline highlights a more selective approach by companies as they navigate a challenging economic landscape. 

Venture financing also fell, with a drop of approximately 5%, suggesting that investors are becoming increasingly discerning in their funding decisions. 

Private equity transactions saw the most substantial decline, plummeting by about 15%. This sharp decrease indicates that investors are prioritising stability and risk management over aggressive expansion strategies, said GlobalData. 

Regionally, North America continues to dominate the global deal landscape, accounting for a significant portion of total activity. However, deal volume in this region has decreased by around 3%. Europe experienced a more pronounced decline, with a drop of around 7%, reflecting the impact of economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions on investor confidence. The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, while showing relative resilience, recorded a marginal decline of about 1%. Notably, countries like India and Japan have bucked the trend.

“Deal-making sentiment has shifted towards caution, driven by challenging macroeconomic factors,” said Aurojyoti Bose, Lead Analyst at GlobalData. “The overall trend suggests that while the appetite for deals remains, the focus has shifted towards quality and sustainability. This divergence underscores the varying dynamics within different markets, with some regions demonstrating stronger growth potential despite global challenges.”

Meanwhile, the total number of deals announced in the Middle East and Africa, and South and Central America regions also fell by around 11% and 10%, respectively, during Q1-Q3 2025 compared to Q1-Q3 2024.

The US remains the top market globally, although its deal volume decreased by around 3% YoY. The UK, Canada, Germany, Australia, South Korea, Italy, Brazil, and the UAE also faced declines of around 8%, 8%, 4%, 7%, 23%, 4%, 9% and 10%, respectively.

Conversely, emerging markets such as India and China are showing resilience. China experienced a slight increase in deal volume by 1% YoY, while deal activity in India was up by 6%. Deal volume for Japan also improved by 10%.

Bose concludes: “The decline in global deal volume during the first three quarters of 2025 reflects a broader trend of cautious deal-making sentiment. While challenges persist, there are also opportunities for strategic investments. The focus will likely shift towards high-quality investments that can withstand the pressures of an uncertain economic climate.”

GlobalData notes that historical data may change as some deals may be added to previous months because of a delay in the disclosure of information in the public domain.