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Africa has a busy calendar for national elections in 2016. Presidential and parliamentary elections, including runoffs, are scheduled to take place in Central African Republic, Uganda, Niger, Benin, Cape Verde, Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Chad, Sao Tome and Principe, Zambia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gambia, Ghana, Mauritania, Cote d’Ivoire, Sudan, Morocco, Somalia, Rwanda and Gabon.

National referendum will also hold in Sudan, Libya and Tanzania.

This makes political risk the key risk to watch in Africa in 2016. However, the presidential elections are expected to mostly return the incumbents. This is largely a political risk mitigation for Africa, where self-succession is the major guarantee of peaceful political transition.

Observers will also be looking at how the adverse economic conditions in Africa, arising from low commodity prices, might impact either the calendar of the election, which starts with presidential and parliamentary runoffs in Central African Republic on 31st of January, or the outcome of a number of the elections.