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Tinubu, Fubara, Wike and the fragility of democracy 04 Jul 2025

Someone should be able to record for history that, in 2025, a Nigerian President disbanded democratic governance in a state of the federation because he wanted to win that state handily in his reelection in the 2027 presidential election. It is as simple as that. 

Of course, President Bola Tinubu and his handlers provided a more sophisticated reason for suspending the Governor of Rivers State and the entire state legislators for six months and imposing a sole administrator who is not even from the state, and who is solely answerable to him. That reason was that there was an actual or real threat of breakdown of law and order in Rivers State such that only the abrogation of democratic governance can save the state. Well, this lie did not age long. It was destructed by two very subsequent acts of the President and the sole administrator he appointed. 

No sooner had the sole administrator settled down in the office than he exposed the lie that the state faced an imminent breakdown of law and order. He has not taken any action or made any pronouncement to address any possible breach of security or fragility in the security situation. Instead, he has gone about the normal work of an elected governor in a stable and peaceful state. He took opportunities to nullify political appointments and make his own. He holds political meetings with political chieftains. His wife embarks on political actions like a first lady and invites country women to political summits with Nigeria’s first lady. He does everything a governor does in a stable environment and more. But nothing about insecurity. There were no special announcements and no extraordinary measures to restrict human rights. Just normal Rivers State, apart from the absence of elected officials. This confirms what everyone knows. Rivers State was not in any sort of a state of insecurity that warranted President Tinubu’s extraordinary and self-serving executive action.

Another confirmation that the threat of imminent breakdown of law and order in Rivers was a malicious ruse by Tinubu to secure a political stronghold for his reelection bid in 2027 came out recently. Tinubu is about to end the emergency rule and restore the governor and the legislators to their elective posts. He recently had a reconciliation meeting with the elected Governor Siminalayi Fubara, the Minister of Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, and the suspended Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly. After the meeting, the parties signed a deal to restore democracy to Rivers. As reported by the media, the high points of the deal include that Fubara would not seek reelection in 2027 and would not replace the political appointees of the sole administrator. Because the crisis was political, not security, the reconciliation was political.

The background to the crisis makes the falsehood clearer. The facts are that Tinubu’s Minister of the FCT, Mr. Wike, was former Governor of Rivers State and handpicked Mr. Fubara as his successor. Shortly after getting to office, Fubara fell out with Wike and the estrangement led to major political fireworks, culminating in extreme gamesmanship between Governor Fubara and 18 state legislators loyal to Wike. These legislators defected to the President’s party, APC. The governor deemed that they have lost their seats by reason of the defection and declared them no longer legislators. He got the remaining four legislators still loyal to him to continue to legislate, including approving appropriation laws. The brinkmanship resulted in the destruction of the State House of Assembly building and feverish political rhetoric and multiple legal suits. 

The Supreme Court intervened in the many legal disputes between the warring parties. The court’s decision seemed to have recognised that Wike’s legislators are still legislators and directed the governor to re-present the 2025 Appropriation Bill before Wike’s legislators. In the ensuring delay and alleged attempt to impeach the governor, the President declared a state of emergency and suspended the governor, deputy governor and members of the state legislature from office.  

Evidently, there was no real threat of breakdown of law and order in Rivers State of the sort that could not be addressed through the normal exercise of law enforcement powers of the federal police and other security agencies. As proof of this, President Tinubu in his address to the nation announcing the declaration of emergency rule, alluded to his deployment of the military to deal with an isolated instance of alleged bomb attack on an oil facility and admitted that the incident has been brought under control. Nothing happened before the declaration that resulted in a single death. Since the declaration, there has been zero death arising from violent incidents. This contrasts with the state of insecurity in Plateau, Benue, Zamfara and many states in Northern Nigeria where tens and hundreds have died in bloody attacks by terrorists. No state of emergency has been declared in any of these troubled states.

Reasonable Nigerians can disagree whether Tinubu’s declaration meets constitutional requirements. I think it does not. But beyond constitutional niceties, the fact that a president truncated democracy in the state in his quest for political advantage underlines the fragility of democracy especially in dangerous places like Nigeria. In 2006, President Obasanjo almost amended the constitution to extend his tenure. In 2025, President Tinubu vacated democracy in Rivers State to ensure electoral victory in 2027. All testify to the wisdom of what Adam Przeworski (Crises of Democracy 2019), Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt (How Democracies Die 2018) and several other scholars have noted that democracy dies not only through coups. Democracy also dies when elected officials themselves kill democracy to retain political power. 

Elected officials can easily kill democracy because the rules of any game are inherently manipulable. Moreso, the rules of politics. Tinubu is proof-positive that these scholars are right.

Sam Amadi, PhD, a former Chairman of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, is the Director of Abuja School of Social and Political Thoughts.