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On the evening of December 9, 2016, the Electoral Commission of Ghana (EC) declared the New Patriotic Party (NPP) candidate, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, as winner of the December 7, 2016 presidential election, defeating the incumbent, John Dramani Mahama, of the National Democratic Congress (NDC). Now that Ghana has a new president-in-waiting, what lessons can be distilled from the whole electoral process, and what should be the priorities of the incoming government?

Highlights

•    The EC declared Akufo-Addo winner with 53.85% of the total votes compared to 44.40% for Mahama.
•    Delays in announcement of the results would likely lead to closer scrutiny of EC and the electoral process.
•    NPP’s policing of results tabulation has set a significant precedent for democracy.
•    Low voter turnout in Volta Region was very costly for the NDC.
•    Wide use of social media and a vibrant civil society were contributing factors to a more issues-based electoral process.
•    A high number of ‘spoiled ballots’ show the need for greater sensitisation of the population.
•    The transitional team has since commenced work and will be in place until the inauguration on January 7, 2017. The team is a combination of NDC’s outgoing ministers and some NPP technocrats.

Post-mortem

Since Ghana restored multiparty democracy in 1992, power has changed from the ruling party to opposition three times (2000, 2008 and 2016). But what made the 2016 polls different was that it was the first time that an opposition party candidate removed a sitting president before reaching the constitutional two-term limit. The post-mortem has just begun but there are already lessons and takeaways for various parties on the political landscape.

A.    Delays: The EC held three press conferences the day after the polls following controversies and resistance from party agents at the national collation centre. The EC was initially silent as the NPP and NDC claimed victory, thereby, raising tensions.

B.    Need for sensitisation: There was a significant number of spoiled ballots, amounting to 166,248 or 1.5% of votes cast. As a result, there have been calls from various policy think tanks, NGOs and other actors for the EC and the National Commission on Civic Education (NCCE) to help improve voter education and reduce this phenomenon of spoiled ballots in Ghanaian elections.

C.    Low turnout: Although registered voters increased by 1.5 million, there were 465,000 less votes in this election than in 2012. The factors that caused the low turnout may include:
(a)     Overconfidence – the potential for this was flagged up early in the election campaign, which led to a big push by the parties to ensure their supporters got out to vote;
(b)     Security fears – a Songhai Advisory pre-election study found that 79% of respondents were concerned about security in the run-up to the polls. There were also flashpoints at Odododiodo, Ankaase, Suhum, Chereponi, Hohoe, among other places;
(c)     Apathy – voters who were unwilling to vote for their traditional party’s candidate or the candidate of the rival party simply stayed at home.
    
In the end, the low turnout was particularly damaging to Mahama, who attained roughly 861,000 less votes than he did in 2012. Although the NDC gained over 82% of the votes in its ‘World Bank’ stronghold of the Volta Region, voter turnout was as low as 60% compared to the unconfirmed national average of 68% (final figures are yet to come out). One Songhai consultant based in the Volta Region concluded that: “the people of southern Volta abstained because they felt left out in terms of developmental projects and job opportunities. Due to the vigilance of the NPP dubbed 'Operation Tiger Eye', Ghanaians resident in Togo didn't feel safe enough to return. The opulence of the political leadership annoyed some too”.

D.    Issues-Based voting: The Songhai Advisory pre-election study also showed 58% of Ghanaian voters were going to vote based on candidates’ policy objectives and none said that ethnicity was important when casting their vote. Although the survey was only indicative, findings do point to a move away from personality politics due to a difficult macroeconomic context, rapidly-developing social media awareness and vibrant civil society.

What Next?

Under the amended Presidential (Transition) Act of 2012 (Act 845), a transition team must be in place within 24 hours of the declaration of results by the EC. Consequently, a bipartisan team was announced on Saturday, December 10.  
    
While by no means definitive, the choice of the NPP members included in the transition team are an indication of the character of the incoming administration. It’s noteworthy that key members served in the 2001-2009 John Kufuor government and have economic policy or strong private sector backgrounds. This also reflects a disposition to fulfil the major campaign promise of the NPP to restore the struggling economy. The following is an overview of the transition team:
•    Representative of the President-elect, Yaw Osafo Marfo, is a long-standing NPP figure with expertise on the economy (having held the post of Minister of Finance and Economic Planning in the Kufuor administration as well as posts with the World Bank and the African Development Bank).
•    Member responsible for Finance, Ken Ofori-Atta, is a key NPP supporter and financier. He is the CEO of Databank and is also involved in banking in Liberia and Gambia.
•    Member responsible for Legal Affairs, Gloria Akuffo, held various ministerial posts under Kufuor and was also the lead counsel on the NPP’s case challenging the election results in 2012/13.
•    Member responsible for Local Government, Hajia Alima Mahama, also held a number of ministerial posts between 2001 and 2008.
    
The team was formed smoothly and is at work; nevertheless, partisanship is still in evidence. For example, the NPP has accused the NDC of shifting goalposts by delaying and doctoring handover notes, cheaply selling off or hiding government assets, signing last minute long-term contracts and recruiting party sympathisers into various roles within the civil service. The NPP has said that it may review some of the last-minute contracts that the NDC signed once it enters office.

Priority Areas

The economy has been central. In its 2016 manifesto dubbed, “Change: An Agenda for Jobs,” the NPP promised to build one factory in each district, construct one dam in each of the villages in the three northern regions to boost agricultural production and invest US$1 million in infrastructural development in each of the 275 constituencies, annually. Other core elements of its economic plan include:
•    Taxation: It wants to have corporate income tax reduced from 25% to 20%; the 17.5% VAT on financial services, internal flights and imported medicines will be abolished; and 5% VAT on real estate sales will be scrapped.
•    Governance: It plans to create an office of independent prosecutor. Akufo-Addo has pledged that his administration will not pursue a ‘witch hunt’ against members of the NDC. However, it is unclear whether the new government will heed the various calls from civil society to separate the Attorney General’s office from that of the Minister of Justice, which is the current arrangement.
    
In line with the economic focus, the only confirmed ministerial appointment thus far is that of Alan Kyeremanteng as Minster of Trade and Industry. Although not officially announced, the president-elect made this known at a meeting with the business community in Kumasi.

Conclusion

Ghana held its seventh consecutive elections under its Fourth Republic, which were widely considered to be free, fair and peaceful. The NPP showed itself to be extremely vigilant in its parallel tabulation of results alongside the EC, which has set an extremely important precedent in terms of the oversight function that parties can play in order to deter potential malfeasance by the EC.
    
The EC will no doubt be scrutinised, to ascertain what went wrong with the digital transmission of results, the failure of which caused some of the confusion and delays in the declaration of results. The NPP came into the election still harbouring some concerns about the legitimacy of the voter’s register. So it is likely that it will address that issue at some point during its time in power. Indeed, the party’s campaign manager has already raised the issue despite the party’s victory.
    
For the outgoing NDC, their time in the wilderness of opposition begins on January 7. There has already been a whole raft of accusations and counter-accusations over who did or didn’t carry out their roles, who pilfered campaign funds and who was working in conjunction with the opposition. An in-depth inquiry must take place in the party to see what went wrong. However, some sources within the NDC are claiming that they will use this defeat as a chance to polish the tarnished reputation of the party and put it back on track in terms of showing that it is a party of and for the people. According to the sources, for this to be done, many of the leaders of the party will need to be changed and a mixture of new, young leaders as well as  those that were maligned after the death of former President John Evans Atta Mills will need to be brought in.
    
The NPP appealed to the bread and butter issues which were at the core of the frustrations expressed by many Ghanaians. Delivering in the context of significant public debt, International Monetary Fund (IMF) policy constraints and volatile global context is no mean feat. Nevertheless, the electorate has demonstrated its willingness and ability to punish the political class.

Kobi Annan and Emmanuel Amoah-Darwah are Analysts at Songhai Advisory, and Nana Adu Ampofo and Kissy Agyeman-Togobo are Managing Partners at the firm. Songhai Advisory is  a bespoke business intelligence consultancy based in London and Accra, which focuses exclusively on sub Saharan African economies: www.songhaiadvisory.com.