Menu

As the African Development Bank (AfDB) prepares to elect its next president, the election comes at a defining moment. The question is no longer whether Africa can transform. The question is: who will build the institutional engine to make that transformation real – and resilient?

This is not a ceremonial election. It is a consequential test of vision, credibility, and execution. The next AfDB president must be a steward of transformation and must align the continent’s financing needs with a rapidly shifting global economic order.

Five candidates are vying for the role. Each represents a distinct theory of change for Africa’s development.

From Senegal, Amadou Hott emphasizes fiscal independence. A former Minister of Economy and AfDB Vice President for Climate and Energy, Hott argues that Africa must become its own banker – by improving tax-to-GDP ratios, attracting domestic capital, and lowering aid dependency. His call for stronger sovereign balance sheets is timely. The central question his approach raises is whether fiscal reforms alone can be accelerated at the scale and pace required to unlock transformational capital across the continent.

Zambia’s Samuel Maimbo, a World Bank Vice President, promotes continental cohesion. His focus on intra-African trade – still just 15% of the continent’s total – highlights the need for integrated financial markets and cross-border investment. Yet, it remains to be seen how swiftly political systems and regulatory frameworks can adapt to support that vision.

South Africa’s Swazi Tshabalala, a former Senior Vice President of the AfDB and seasoned banker, calls for internal reform. She proposes that the Bank should prioritize execution over expansion, sharpening its focus on infrastructure delivery, and developing more innovative financial tools. This institutional critique raises a key question: how can reforms be implemented in a way that accelerates rather than slows the Bank’s responsiveness to the continent’s growing demands?

From Chad, Abbas Mahamat Tolli, a seasoned central banker and former governor of the Bank of Central African States, frames the moment as a crisis of governance. He emphasizes tightening public financial management, pooling regional risk, and digitizing development finance. His approach highlights structural fundamentals. The test ahead may lie in translating governance gains into accelerated outcomes, especially in environments grappling with volatility, debt distress, or limited institutional capacity.

And then, there’s Mauritania’s Sidi Ould Tah, whose candidacy is grounded in over a decade of multilateral leadership. As Managing Director of the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA), he oversaw a significant institutional shift, including the expansion of authorized capital from $4.2 billion to $20 billion – of which $10 billion was subscribed and $5 billion paid in. His tenure focused on strengthening operational efficiency and geographic reach, with financing extended to 44 African countries and disbursement rates consistently maintained above 95%.

This period also saw the launch of co-financing initiatives with Gulf partners, increased support to fragile and low-access economies, and targeted investments in trade finance, youth employment, and climate-resilient infrastructure. Many of these initiatives were structured within South–South cooperation frameworks and regional capital partnerships, reflecting a pragmatic approach to development finance amid evolving geopolitical conditions.

But BADEA operates at a smaller scale than AfDB. However, the institutional model Tah advanced emphasized delivery systems that were both adaptive and quietly scalable – placing a premium on execution, financial discipline, and regional responsiveness.

So, what does this mean for the continent?

The next AfDB president should be judged not by their plans, but by their readiness. The world has changed. Donors are retreating. The United States is reducing its contributions to the AfDB and the African Development Fund by over $500 million. Meanwhile, Gulf capital, BRICS lending, and sovereign wealth funds are playing a more central role in Africa’s financing landscape. This is not a financial environment for the untested.

Africa needs an AfDB president who can speak the language of capital markets – but also understand the political economy of post-conflict states. Someone who can attract sovereign guarantees in Tokyo while closing SME deals in Ouagadougou. Someone whose understanding of blended finance isn’t theoretical – but operational.

The stakes are high. In fragile states like Somalia, South Sudan, the Central African Republic, and in eastern DRC, a fit-for-purpose AfDB could deploy mobile health systems, renewable microgrids, and vocational training programs within months – not years. But this requires an institution nimble enough to act early and strong enough to stay the course.

In emerging economies like Ghana, Kenya, Côte d’Ivoire, and Rwanda, the next Bank’s president must help governments escape the “middle-income trap” through industrial financing, logistics integration, and sovereign de-risking instruments. These countries are not asking for aid. They are asking for a co-investor who understands risk-sharing, timelines, and competitiveness.

For resource-intensive economies like Nigeria, Angola, Senegal, and Mozambique, the question is whether the AfDB can lead – not follow – on the just energy transition. Can it unlock green hydrogen, gas-to-power transitions, and local content manufacturing in ways that satisfy both climate funds and credit rating agencies? The right leadership could help these states shift from extraction-dependency to energy-exporting.

And for strategic non-regional partners – France, Japan, the UAE, and China – the expectation is institutional integrity. Can the next AfDB president maintain trust in financial governance, accelerate project pipelines, and preserve multilateral independence in an age of geopolitical divergence? Africa’s development partners are not looking for politics; they’re looking for performance.

This election is not about personality. It is about institutional posture.

Africa’s next AfDB president must be a constructor of systems – not slogans. A leader who understands that job creation isn’t a press release, but a financing structure. That climate adaptation isn’t a declaration, but a shovel-ready project. That trust, in an era of debt renegotiations and development fatigue, must be earned, not through talking points but through delivery.

There is no perfect candidate. But there is a clear imperative: Africa cannot afford to wait for ambition to be translated into action. It must start with someone who has the requisite experience.

This is not the time for experiments. It is time for execution.

Let the continent choose wisely. History will not remember who spoke most confidently. It will remember who got things done.

Oyebanji Ogundere is a lawyer, public policy advocate, and serial entrepreneur with ventures spanning agriculture, education, media, and entertainment.