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Crude oil prices fell to a four-month low on 2 October 2025, owing to speculations that the oil cartel OPEC+ may increase supply. The WTI futures fell below $61.5 per barrel, extending a four-day decline streak.

“Markets are still digesting reports that OPEC+ could accelerate its scheduled increases – in size and timing – into November,” noted Felipe Barragán, Expert Research Strategist at Pepperstone. “Even the possibility of a faster ramp (variously framed as approximately 0.3–0.5 million barrels per day) resets the risk balance toward looser fundamentals into year-end, keeping rallies self-limiting unless geopolitics or outages intervene.”

The U.S. Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the last week of September showed refinery runs easing and a crude build. Alongside weaker product output, these market dynamics blunt demand for feedstock and leave more crude oil on hand. 
 
Across major markets, macroeconomic indicators lean towards a demand-cautious scenario. In the U.S., the ISM manufacturing PMI ticked up but stayed in contraction, offering “less bad” rather than “good” news for industrial fuel demand. Across Asia, PMIs were “mixed” to “soft”. China’s official gauge remained below 50 and Japan’s slipped further – reinforcing a picture of tepid goods momentum. 

“These aren’t collapsing signals, but they do restrain the speed at which cracks in the oil market can heal,” Barragán wrote in a research note sent to Financial Nigeria on October 2.
 
For Latin America, Mexico’s ongoing support for Pemex and Brazil’s mix of licensing hurdles and green-lit offshore projects shape medium-term regional flows. But they won’t offset the faster-moving OPEC+/U.S. inventory narrative this month, according to the analyst.
 
“Furthermore, the weakness in US imports presents an additional challenge. Crude imports into the US have been slowing which if sustained, such declines could strain fiscal revenues in oil-export dependent economies like Mexico, Brazil and Colombia, while adding depreciation pressure on their currencies,” noted Barragán.