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Nigeria to be among world’s top 10 economies by 2050

18 Mar 2016, 02:47 pm
Financial Nigeria
Nigeria to be among world’s top 10 economies by 2050

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- Nigeria's economy is projected to rank among the world's top ten economies by 2050 with GDP of $6.4 trillion.

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As global economic power continues to shift away from advanced economies to emerging economies, Nigeria's economy is projected to rank among the world's top ten economies by 2050 with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $6.4 trillion. As of 2014, the Nigerian economy was ranked the 22nd largest economy in the world with a GDP of $569 billion.

The new projection is contained in a latest report by economists at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), called, The World in 2050: Will the shift in global economic power continue?

The report by PwC states that Nigeria, Indonesia and Mexico could displace the United Kingdom and France out of the top ten economies by 2050 provided these emerging economies build their institutions to global standards, diversify their economies and sustain growth friendly policies.

Speaking on Thursday at a forum organised by Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) and PwC, co-author of the report and Chief Economist at PwC Nigeria, Andrew Nevin, said for Nigeria to achieve this top 10 ranking, the country must diversify its economy from over-dependence on crude oil.

“Nigeria’s intrinsic potentialities lie beyond oil; harnessing these potentialities has become an imperative, given the expectations of lower for longer oil prices. Based on recent trends, our report reviews the impact of low oil prices on key economic indicators and the real sector through an industry survey,” Mr. Nevin said at the forum tagged, “Nigeria: Looking beyond oil.”

"Nigeria continues to be an attractive place to invest not because it is an oil producer, but because of the immense size of its domestic market and the extraordinary commercial energy of its people, which remains largely untapped," Nevin added.

The PwC report said in order to drive the Nigerian economy into the future, diversification has to focus on the power, agriculture, manufacturing, telecoms, hospitality and real estate sectors.

"According to our long-term projections, Nigeria could sustain average growth of around 5-6% per annum in the long run, following projected growth of around 6-7% in the rest of this decade, assuming broadly growth-friendly policies are pursued," co-author of the report, Nevin, said.

The report presents long-term projections of potential GDP growth up to 2050 for 32 of the largest economies in the world. The economies account for about 84 percent of total global GDP. The world economy is projected to expand at an average GDP growth rate of just over 3 percent per annum from 2014-50. This will double the size of the global economy by 2037 and nearly triple it by 2050.

China is expected to be the largest economy by 2030. Other highlights in the report shows that India, one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, will have a GDP of $10 trillion by 2020. India's GDP in 2014 was $2.05 trillion, and was ranked the 9th largest economy by the World Bank.

In 2009, the Nigerian National Planning Commission launched an economic transformation blueprint called Vision 20:2020. The blueprint states that by 2020, Nigeria will be among the top 20 economies in the world with a minimum GDP of $900 billion. The vision of statement says, “By 2020, Nigeria will have a large, strong diversified, sustainable and competitive economy that effectively harnesses the talents and energies of its people and responsibly exploits its natural endowments to guarantee a high standard of living and quality of life to its citizen.”

The Chief Economist at PwC Nigeria stated that there four challenges to achieving the projected ranking for Nigeria by 2050. He said challenges to the business environment include corruption, inadequate infrastructure, low skill levels, and macroeconomic uncertainty.

He also said, “Efficiency in government spending has to improve...In addition, the government needs to be deliberate about increasing fiscal savings through a higher accretion to the Sovereign Wealth Fund which has investment objectives of diversification and improving long term economic prospects.”

Nevin said improving tax collection and administration are imperatives for achieving Nigeria's national growth objectives.

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