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Nigeria has emerged as one of the Commonwealth’s leading nations for youth readiness in artificial intelligence (AI), ranking 15th out of 56 member countries in a major new study that estimates AI could add more than $5 billion to the country’s economy over the next decade.

The findings were unveiled at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda through the launch of the Ayre Index, the first comparative assessment of the conditions influencing young people’s ability to benefit from AI across all 56 Commonwealth nations.

Nigeria scored 54.5 out of 100, narrowly surpassing the benchmark score of 53 required to be considered AI-ready. The country was the final nation above that threshold, while 41 Commonwealth members fell below it. Among African Commonwealth countries, only Mauritius, South Africa and Nigeria achieved the benchmark.

The study, published in an inaugural White Paper by the Ayre Think Tank, analysed 1,128 research sources and explored the opportunities and challenges facing approximately 732 million young people aged between 15 and 29 across the Commonwealth.

For Nigeria, the report paints a picture of a youthful population eager to embrace emerging technologies. The country is home to an estimated 65.7 million people aged 15 to 29, one of the largest youth populations in the Commonwealth.

According to the research, 90 per cent of young Nigerians expected to use AI for education or work within the following year, the highest proportion recorded in the Index. In addition, 67.8 per cent said they felt confident managing their interactions with AI technologies.

Nigeria earned a score of 8.7 out of 10 in the Index’s motivation and confidence category, reflecting what researchers described as a strong appetite among young people to participate in the growing AI economy.

The country also recorded outstanding performance in work-based learning. Around 84 out of every 1,000 young Nigerians were enrolled in apprenticeships, internships or traineeships, the highest rate among the 31 Commonwealth countries for which comparable data were available.

A separate international survey referenced in the report found that 47.8 per cent of Nigerian university students aged 18 to 29 who used ChatGPT reported often or always using the tool to find information for research papers, the highest share among countries included in that comparison.

Despite these encouraging indicators, the report highlighted significant challenges.

Nigeria scored just 0.8 out of 10 for digital, data, media and AI capability under the Index’s selected measures. Researchers noted that the score was largely based on traditional computer skills assessments, such as installing software and programming, rather than direct measurement of AI proficiency.

The study also pointed to widespread informal employment and a relatively low proportion of young adults working in high-skill occupations, suggesting that enthusiasm for technology has yet to fully translate into stronger employment outcomes.

Researchers argue that bridging this skills gap will be essential if Nigeria is to fully capitalise on the opportunities presented by AI.

The economic rewards could be substantial. Using scenarios developed by the International Monetary Fund, the report estimates that AI could increase Nigeria’s GDP by $5.234 billion over ten years under a moderate-growth scenario. Under a conservative estimate, the gain would be $2.617 billion, while an optimistic scenario projects an increase of $7.851 billion.

“I’ve spent my life in businesses where new technology changes everything, and I know you can’t stand still,” said Calvin Ayre, founder of the Ayre Think Tank.

“AI is going to change how we work, how we do business and how wealth is created. But this is not a race that only the biggest or richest countries can win. What matters is giving young people the skills and the chance to get ahead.”

Nigeria has already launched several initiatives aimed at building AI and digital skills. These include the government’s 3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT) programme, which provides training in digital technologies, including AI and machine learning, as well as AI Academy Nigeria, launched in partnership with Meta to support training, technical development and startup growth.

The government has also introduced the National AI Innovation Challenge, encouraging developers, universities and startups to build applications using N-ATLAS, an AI model designed to support Yoruba, Hausa, Igbo and Nigerian English.

The White Paper identifies five priority areas for policymakers: improving affordable access to technology, strengthening practical education and skills training, creating stronger links between training and employment, developing AI tools suited to local languages and contexts, and establishing safeguards that enable young people to challenge automated decisions.

Professor C. Justin Robinson, Pro Vice-Chancellor and Campus Principal of the University of the West Indies Five Islands Campus, said young people must be empowered not only to use AI but also to shape its future.

“We need to make sure that the next generation will be able to do more than just consume AI products made elsewhere,” he said. “Young people should be equipped to question these new tools, to improve them and to be supported in building alternatives suited to their own needs.”

The report concludes that while Nigeria’s young population is among the most enthusiastic users of AI in the Commonwealth, converting that enthusiasm into skills, innovation, entrepreneurship and sustainable employment will determine whether the country can fully realise the technology’s economic potential.