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Lessons of Lekki massacre for Nigerian business leaders 20 Oct 2025

Five years ago this month, a dark and ominous event occurred in Nigeria. On 20 October 2020, there was a state-sanctioned assault on peaceful, youth-led protesters at the Lekki Toll Gate, in Lagos, the commercial nerve centre of the country. 

That horrific event was not entirely an aberration for a country that was well-acquainted with bloody political crisis. It reflected Nigeria's foundational governance predicament. Nevertheless, the Lekki shooting shattered the country’s already-fragile trust in its political leaders. The wound caused by the unresolved aftermath of the shooting has continued to exert a corrosive influence on Nigeria’s political stability, economic prospects, and national security. The government’s calculated obfuscation and denial have only created a sad reminder that undermines the very foundations of the Nigerian state.

Nigerians are unlikely to have forgotten. Five years ago, what began as a peaceful demonstration against police brutality, under the banner of #EndSARS, culminated in a brutal assault. On that fateful night, Nigerian military and police forces opened fire on unarmed civilians! It was not in a moment of panic or chaos. It was a calculated act to send a clear message: the state is above the law.

The government’s initial response was a pathetic denial of clear evidence. The Lagos State Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu initially claimed no lives were lost. But this narrative quickly unravelled in the face of overwhelming eyewitness accounts and video evidence. While a judicial panel of inquiry was eventually constituted, its finding of a "massacre" was swiftly rejected by the federal government, which deployed a strategy of disinformation and intimidation. The refusal to acknowledge the truth further solidified a perception of a ruling elite insulated from the consequences of their actions.

A layer of cruelty was added to the injustice when the residents of the informal settlements adjacent to the toll gate that witnessed the atrocity were subsequently chased away from their homes. In a series of demolitions, their homes were destroyed, scattering key witnesses. This was a clear act of intentional displacement designed to silence those who could speak the truth. By late 2021, reports confirmed that continuous police raids forced the departure or concealment of key witnesses and many who lived around the toll gate. The physical and human landscape of the scene of the sordid act of that day has been permanently altered to challenge the chance of success of a genuine future inquiry.

The lack of justice in the Lekki massacre has had a calamitous political impact. It has profoundly deepened the distrust between the government and its largest demographic: the youth. This cohort, which had mobilised peacefully for reform, was met with lethal force, a state-sponsored disinformation campaign, and the brutal silencing of their community. The consequence is a deep and perhaps irreversible cynicism towards governmental institutions. The social contract, the idea that the state holds a monopoly of violence in exchange for the protection of its citizens, was broken at Lekki. When citizens no longer believe the state is a legitimate arbiter of justice, they are less likely to engage with it constructively, fostering an environment of alienation and latent anger that is highly volatile.

This profound betrayal served as the primary catalyst for a new wave of emigration or what is referred to as "japa". The violence at Lekki shattered the faith of a generation, particularly the educated middle-level managers who formed the backbone of the private sector. These were not just young graduates, but experienced professionals: engineers, IT specialists, finance experts, and doctors, who had dedicated years to building their careers in Nigeria. They had, up until that point, demonstrated a willingness to endure the country’s chronic infrastructural deficits, power outages, and bureaucratic hurdles, believing in the long-term potential of Nigeria. For them, however, the Lekki massacre was a step too far in government lawlessness. It was a clear, unambiguous signal that their lives and their rights were not protected by the state. The belief that they could build a better life for themselves and their children in Nigeria, a core tenet of their commitment, was violated.

The economic ramifications of this japa wave have been far more severe and enduring than the more immediate shocks to the markets. The departure of these middle-level managers represents a critical loss of human capital. These individuals are the operational core of any economy; they translate strategy into execution, mentor junior staff, and drive innovation from within. Their exodus has left a significant skills gap across vital sectors. Companies now face challenges in finding qualified replacements, leading to decreased productivity, higher recruitment costs, and a weakening of institutional knowledge. 

The loss of these professionals is a double blow: not only does Nigeria lose their direct economic contributions and tax revenue, but it also loses the future leaders and innovators who would have driven the country's economic diversification and growth. The talent drain, coupled with the chilling effect on foreign direct investment caused by the knowledge that there is an absence of the rule of law, has created a perfect storm for economic stagnation.

Perhaps most critically, the impunity at Lekki has had a direct and negative impact on national security. The core demand of the #EndSARS protest was an end to police brutality and a reform of Nigeria’s security apparatus. The government’s violent and unpunished repression of the protest only served to entrench the very problem the youth were protesting. It tells security forces that they can use lethal force against unarmed civilians without consequences. This has exacerbated the already tense relationship between the police, military, and the public, weakening the state’s ability to maintain law and order. 

When the populace views its protectors as its primary threat, it creates a vacuum of security that can be exploited by criminal and non-state actors. Furthermore, it cedes the moral high ground to non-state actors and extremist groups who prey on grievances against the state, providing them with a powerful recruitment tool.

The verdict by the Court of Justice of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in July 2024 offers a sliver of external validation for the victims. The court found the government guilty of human rights violations, including the “shooting of unarmed protesters,” and the “failure to investigate and prosecute the perpetrators”. While a landmark ruling, from an analytical standpoint, it changes little on the ground. It underscores the Nigerian judiciary’s inability to hold its own government to account, forcing citizens to seek justice in regional courts. Even then, the government largely ignored the verdict of the Ecowas court, reinforcing the perception of impunity.

In the final analysis, the Lekki saga presents a stark and urgent challenge to Nigeria’s business class. As stewards of a significant portion of the country’s wealth and economic future, they have a paramount vested interest in financing a society where the rule of law is paramount. The very foundation of their ventures, from property rights to contract enforcement, rests upon a functioning, just, and predictable legal system. The business community’s traditional approach of quietly navigating state corruption and instability, rather than actively working to combat it, is a self-defeating strategy. The Lekki massacre and its fallout demonstrate that political instability, social unrest, and a reputation for impunity are not isolated risks but existential threats to commerce itself. The capital flight and risk premium that have followed are a direct consequence of this inaction.

History offers a powerful lesson. The American industrialists of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, faced with social upheaval, labour unrest, and the wild unpredictability of an unregulated environment, eventually understood that their long-term interests lay in funding and advocating for a more stable and just society. They supported legal reforms, educational institutions, and civic organisations that strengthened the rule of law, ultimately safeguarding their own investments. 

Nigeria’s business class must take a similar leap of faith. They must go beyond simply paying taxes or making charitable donations to actively using their considerable influence to demand accountability. This includes financing independent legal and investigative bodies, supporting civil society groups, and publicly condemning state violence and impunity. 

Until Nigerian business leaders recognise that the profits of their institutions are inextricably linked to the well-being and trust of their fellow citizens, the unhealed wound of Lekki will continue to bleed, poisoning the national environment, and leaving Nigeria’s prosperity a hostage to its politics.

Cheta Nwanze is Lead Partner at SBM Intelligence.