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UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) says global trade continued to expand strongly in the first half of 2026, although the gains were increasingly uneven across regions and sectors and were supported in part by rising prices.

In its Global Trade Update for July/August 2026, UNCTAD estimates that global goods trade reached about $13.7 trillion in the first half of the year, up 12.5 per cent from the same period in 2025. Services trade rose by 10.5 per cent. Together, goods and services added around US$2 trillion to global trade, putting it on course for a record annual value.

The report’s charts show that momentum strengthened through the first half of the year. Goods trade grew by 4.8 per cent quarter on quarter in the first quarter of 2026 and by an estimated 6.4 per cent in the second quarter, while services trade expanded more slowly, at 1.6 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively. On a trailing four-quarter basis, goods trade was up 9.7 per cent, and services trade 10.1 per cent.

However, a significant share of the increase reflected higher prices rather than stronger trade volumes. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, together with concerns over energy supplies, raised energy, transport, logistics and production costs. UNCTAD’s trade-price chart shows overall prices of traded goods rising by 3.6 per cent quarter on quarter in the first quarter and by an estimated 5.1 per cent in the second. Over the trailing four quarters, trade-price inflation averaged 3.4 per cent.

East Asia remained the main engine of global trade growth in the first quarter of 2026, supported by strong import and export performance in China and the Republic of Korea. Other Asian subregions saw trade contract, while Africa and the Americas recorded stronger import growth than export growth.

East Asia’s role was also decisive for South-South trade: excluding the region, trade among developing economies contracted in the first quarter. Trade balances continued to shift, with China’s surplus widening and the United States’ deficit narrowing.

Technology-intensive goods led sectoral gains. During the first quarter, demand linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure, digital technologies and electric mobility lifted trade by 38 per cent for critical minerals, 25 per cent for semiconductors, 15 per cent for batteries, 14 per cent for ICT products and 11 per cent for electric vehicles.

By contrast, trade contracted in chemicals, iron and steel, and some renewable-energy products. Fossil-fuel trade increased largely because of higher prices, underscoring UNCTAD’s warning that global trade growth remains positive but increasingly dependent on selected sectors and vulnerable to geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty and higher trade costs.