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Rising geopolitical tensions, surging energy demand, and volatility in fossil fuel markets are reshaping the global energy landscape, pushing the energy transition into a new phase centred on electrification, renewable power, and a faster shift away from fossil fuels, says the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in a new report.
 
The report, Transitioning away from fossil fuels: A roadmap powered by renewables, electrification and grid enhancement, warns that current energy systems remain structurally unprepared to meet the 1.5°C climate goal. 

Released with the Brazilian COP30 Presidency and ahead of the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial, the report says the goals of tripling renewable power capacity and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030 remain essential, but are no longer sufficient on their own to deliver the transition. 
 
As demand rises across transport, industry, buildings and digital infrastructure, the report says the transition must increasingly focus on electrifying end-use sectors while reducing dependence on fossil fuels.

In its revised 1.5°C scenario, IRENA projects electricity’s share of global final energy consumption rising from about 23% today to 35% in 2035 and above 50% in 2050, with most of the additional demand met by renewables. It also sees the share of fossil fuels falling from 80% today to about 50% in 2035 and to 20% or less by 2050. 
 
“The world must adapt to a new energy reality,” said Francesco La Camera, IRENA’s Director-General. “Beyond the goals of tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency lies the wider challenge of transforming entire energy systems and reducing fossil fuel use across supply and demand. Electrification and fossil fuel phase-out are inseparable and must advance together.” 
 
La Camera said the revised roadmap shows electrification backed by renewables can support climate goals, strengthen energy security by reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels, and improve competitiveness by creating new industrial value chains and innovation. He added that cost-competitive renewables can also help keep electricity prices affordable for households and industry.
 
The report says electrification is becoming the main structural driver of fossil fuel decline across major end-use sectors. Moving away from fossil fuels will require a broad restructuring of energy infrastructure and investment, including simultaneous investment in grids, storage and system flexibility to ensure reliable, secure and affordable electricity systems capable of meeting rising demand.
 
Infrastructure remains a major bottleneck, with around 2,500 gigawatts of wind, solar and storage projects waiting for grid connections worldwide. The report says grid investment needs to rise to about $1.2 trillion annually on average through 2050, more than double the roughly $0.5 trillion invested in 2025. 
 
The report also points to significant investment needs in hydrogen and alternative fuel supply chains, as well as in end-use electrification technologies and enabling infrastructure, from EV charging and building retrofits to electric heating, cooling and industrial processes.

La Camera said the pace of fossil fuel phase-out will ultimately depend on how quickly economies electrify. He added that keeping the 1.5°C goal within reach will require a clear global direction, including a 2035 electrification target supported by goals for grids and system flexibility. 

The report also stresses the need to monitor progress on electrification, grid enhancement and fossil fuel decline to support implementation and guide international cooperation.

At COP28, the UAE Consensus and the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement called for tripling renewable capacity and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030, while also strengthening the case for transitioning away from fossil fuels. The transition away from fossil fuels roadmap, backed by the Brazilian COP30 Presidency and supported by IRENA, is intended to help advance climate, energy security and development goals in parallel. 

IRENA said it would continue supporting countries with analysis, partnerships and engagement as the global energy debate builds toward COP31 in Antalya.