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Beyond the adoption of Paris Agreement 30 Dec 2015

The 21st annual session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21) has come and gone. But it produced in its wake the Paris Agreement, which many believe is not only a breakthrough in climate policy change negotiations, but also a landmark in international negotiations. It was not an easy feat getting 195 countries, including the United States, China and Russia, to agree on a single agenda – the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which have negative environmental and social consequences. And as we all know, you rarely see a picture of Russian and American government officials shaking hands and all smiling, having reached an agreement.

Paris Agreement is another clear indication that climate change is a serious threat to mankind. Yet, the excitement surrounding the adoption of the Agreement should not affect our ability to study the 12-page Agreement intelligently. We need to look at all its contents to determine if this is the agreement that finally ensures the environmental safety of future life on the planet.

Short background

After scientists realized in the 1970s and 1980s that the earth’s climate was changing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases emitted as a result of our industrial and agricultural activities, etc., the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was created in 1992 and the COPs became a yearly meeting of all the participating member states to review progress made on the implementation of decisions that have been taken.

COP3 which held in Kyoto, Japan, in 1995 produced the Kyoto Protocol. This created a climate finance platform whereby governments and companies can invest in emission reduction projects in developing countries to offset their own carbon emissions. COP15 in Copenhagen, Denmark, was a big disappointment as countries could not agree on a better alternative to the Kyoto Protocol. France decided in 2012 to be the host for the 2015 UN climate conference. It is with credit to French diplomacy that we now have the Paris Agreement.

Positive takeaways

Agreeing to keep temperature rise “well below 2 degrees C” by the end of this century is probably the biggest achievement from the Paris negotiations. Scientists have advised that temperature increase on the earth’s surface should be kept below 2 degrees Celsius or even 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 if we must avoid environmental and social calamities.

Although no details were provided on how this would be achieved, there is a level of relief that is apparent when we see 195 countries agreeing to work towards achieving a reduction of GHG emissions by 70-90% by 2050.

The provision of $100 billion per year by 2020 (or before 2025) to finance green economic development in developing countries is remarkable. Meanwhile, developing countries are encouraged to voluntarily finance other developing countries. What this means is that developing countries like China, India and Brazil that have already achieved certain level of development and are continuing to grow can and should participate in financing climate change mitigation and adaption in other developing and least developed countries. China has already pledged $3 billion to fight climate change in other developing countries.

Achieving 2tCO2 (tonnes of carbon dioxide) per capita per year for each country would also be a significant step towards reducing carbon emissions. To put things in perspective, China -- considered as the world’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide -- emitted 7.6 tCO2 per capita in 2014; whereas, the U.S. emitted 16.5tCO2 per capita in the same year. The data for many developed countries shows they emitted more than 5tCO2 per capita in 2014. Apart from South Africa, which emitted 7.4tCO2 in 2014, many sub-Saharan African countries emitted 0.5tCO2 per capita in the same year. Nigeria’s data shows 0.5tCO2 per capita, while in 2014 Cameroon emitted 0.4tCO2.

Per capita GHG emission is a better parameter for comparing countries in terms of their emissions. The reason is that although China is a higher emitter of CO2, compared with the U.S., China actually has a lower per capita emission figure because of its vast population of 1.3 billion people. With a population of less than 320 million people, the U.S. has a higher per capita emission of CO2.

Climate change adaptation was also given an important place in the Agreement. This is quite important, especially for Africa and other developing countries that are already suffering the consequences of climate change.

Drawbacks

The Paris Agreement is non-binding. This makes it look like just another declaration. 195 countries are parties to the Agreement and have each committed to reduce their share of greenhouse gas emissions. But there is no way to ensure that sanctions are meted on any party that does not reduce its GHG emissions.

The Agreement will only enter into force if, and this is a big if, 55 countries that produce at least 55 percent of the world's GHG emissions ratify the agreement. They will need to sign the Agreement in New York between 22 April, 2016 and 21 April, 2017, while having it adopted in their own legal systems. The ratification of the Agreement by countries that produce 55 percent GHGs is too small a percentage. It means that China and the U.S. can opt out of the ratification process and it will still be in force. This is very unfortunate. The Kyoto Protocol did not achieve its objective of reducing GHG emissions by 5.2 percent between 2008 and 2012 based on 1990 levels because the U.S. did not ratify it. Canada and Australia later withdrew after ratifying it.

The 10-year time-span for the review of the Paris Agreement is rather too long if we are to reduce emissions by 70 to 90 percent by 2050. At COP20 in Lima, Peru, 187 countries submitted their GHG emission reductions commitment in a document called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC). In aggregating those INDCs, it was discovered that the total reductions by those countries would still not avert a dangerous increase in the earth’s surface temperature by 3 degrees C. Paris Agreement encourages countries to increase their commitments in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) document by 2020. An aggregation will then be made by 2023 and the revision will be done in 2025. Subsequent revision will be after every five years. It remains to see if 25 years would be enough to meet the emission reductions target.

The lack of specific strategies for achieving the emission reductions is also troubling. For instance, it would be important to know what sectors such as renewable energy, agriculture etc. would play a major role in measures to combat global warming. This is an area that subsequent COPs would need to look into before the next revision.

No price was set for carbon at COP21, even though market instruments were identified as being the most efficient and cost-effective ways to reduce GHGs. As we have learned from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI), a market-based mechanism is advised in the Paris Agreement to ensure carbon credit exchanges are real, measurable and verifiable.

Africa and the Paris Agreement

The President of Niger, Mahamadou Issoufou, who was representing West Africa had insisted on the inclusion of measures in the Agreement to help fight against hunger. This effort would amount to nothing if Africa does not set up frameworks and climate policies to attract the pledged funding for developing countries which is part of the Paris Agreement.  

Cameroon, for instance, has set up a National Climate Change Observatory (ONACC) with the mission to coordinate all the climate change adaption and mitigation initiatives in the country. Its role is to promote climate change awareness, advise on appropriate climate polices and facilitate climate funding for green projects and sustainable development in Cameroon.

Having failed to benefit from the CDM, Africa must position itself to be a key beneficiary of new mechanisms that would be created from the Paris Agreement. Funding is critical for closing the gap in adaption on the African continent. The Paris Agreement does well to emphasise this aspect of fighting climate change and Africa should benefit from it.