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Unless the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is renewed, African exporters of agricultural products and light manufactures could face shrinking market access to the United States, undermining prospects for diversification, according to UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

AGOA was launched in May 2000 and has supported sub-Saharan African exports to the US through preferential access. The free trade initiative, introduced under the Democratic administration of President Bill Clinton, expired at the end of September 2025.

UNCTAD said the recent expiry of the scheme would threaten export diversification and industrialisation across the continent. In a country like Lesotho, for instance, approximately one third of exports are tied to AGOA, predominantly in the apparel sector, which employs between 30,000 and 40,000 workers, primarily women.

“African and non-African exporters are already facing increased trade barriers in the US market.  Country- and sector-specific tariffs that have been introduced by the US since April 2025 have increased tariffs for the average AGOA country from below 0.5% to 10%. For key exports, such as agriculture and food products, metals, machinery and transportation, textiles and apparel, they have already triggered a double-digit increase in duties,” UNCTAD notes.

The expiry of AGOA would disproportionately affect Africa’s light-manufacturing exports to the US, namely apparel and agro-food products, such as fish and dried fruits. 

Without AGOA’s preferential treatment, the 32 countries that received preferences until September 2025 would face a second wave of tariff increases as country-specific and sectoral tariffs would be added on top of most-favoured nation (MFN) rates, instead of the current preferential treatment under AGOA, according to UNCTAD. Due to varying tariff rates and exceptions for sensitive raw materials, African exports of agricultural goods and manufactured products would be subject to tariffs that are 2-to-3 times higher than those applied on fuels and minerals.

UNCTAD said exporters of mined commodities are the least affected by the US tariff changes on African goods. Countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria or Angola – whose exports are primarily fuels and minerals – face minimal tariff increases, as their main exports already benefit from low MFN tariffs, or exemptions from additional duties. More diversified economies, such as South Africa, are less exposed to AGOA’s expiry but have already experienced significant tariff increases this year due to country-specific and sectoral tariffs.