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A 2016 outlook for Nigeria's ICT sector 13 Jan 2016

2015 was quite eventful for the telecoms sector. The social media influenced the political transition that took place. A national broadband plan was published and it was well received. The government also signed into law the cybercrime bill and there were calls for protection of ICT infrastructure against vandalism.
    
The groundwork that was laid tells me of great promise of things to come in 2016; I anticipate a technology boom. MainOne Cable and IHS won infraco licenses – which are licences to telecom companies to provide infrastructure. The 2.6GHz and 5.4GHz spectrum never got auctioned. GSM licenses got renewed, albeit it is unclear if there were any new performance conditions.

The National Broadcasting Commission (NBC) postponed the Digital Switchover deadline and licensed part of the 700MHz spectrum to fund the switchover. The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) may also have licensed part of the 900MHz and 700MHz to Globacom and Visafone, which led to the latter's acquisition by MTN, despite a steeply declining CDMA subsector in Nigeria.

At the NCC, change came and the new leadership of the telecoms regulator sent bright flare signals. The NCC will focus more strongly on actual regulation, push improvement in the Quality of Service and enforce adherence to established rules. The big talking point became the over five billion dollar fine imposed on MTN and the implications for the Nigerian market. There were high-level negotiations and heads rolled, but the situation remains unresolved. MTN is now challenging the fine in court. This may not bode well for the sector.

The Honourable Minister of Communications, Adebayo Shittu, spoke at a forum organised by the Alliance for Affordable Internet. He reiterated his commitment to continue the good policies of his predecessor, while maintaining an open and listening ear to the industry.

This month, we expect the publishing of an ICT blueprint. It is within this context that I write my wish list and outlook for the ICT sector in 2016.

More execution, less postulation

Firstly, we expect to see continued implementation of the broadband plan in collaboration with several partners and stakeholders. However, to assure success in 2016, the net needs to be widened significantly to involve more critical implementers to gain significant traction. This will bring stability and continuity to the industry while laying the foundation for increased contributions to the economy, including creating 2,000 more jobs.

Secondly, there needs to be much more concerted efforts in the rollout of base stations and fibre duct infrastructure across the regional hubs to significantly increase 3G/4G coverage across the country. Nigeria requires an estimated additional 75,000 more base stations to get near 70% national coverage by population, not to mention the significant improvement in Quality of Service. In contrast, the United Kingdom has 54,000 base stations that cover a population of approximately 65 million. Telcos cannot do this alone. Government and the regulator need to help, not pay lip service.

Thirdly, all new roads and roads undergoing rehabilitation or guttering should be included with fibre duct infrastructure. Nigeria cannot be a 21st century economy without 21st century infrastructure. It is tiresome to keep hearing comparisons between Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates which has near 100% 'fibre to the home' infrastructure. Optical fibre infrastructure is critical even for wireless communication companies as it enables transportation of large throughputs of data to towers.

Fourthly, we wish to see a fair regulator fostering regional strength. In a recent article, we mentioned that the regulator needn't be friendly; it should just fair. There is always a continuous trade-off between heavy-handed regulation with the potential to kill an industry and just the right measure of stick-and-carrot to drive the industry forward and ensure operators meet their targets and license obligations. Nigeria needs that balance to be right, and for national operators to be truly national. Over 50% of states are left behind in the global race for development. ICT bridges a significant gap and is an enabler to all sectors in the knowledge and digital economy.

Political will

We wish to see more completed projects, more executed plans, and more positive ICT laws enacted. For example TV White Space (TVWS) trials must pass pilot stage in Nigeria. This presents a significant opportunity to address rural access and affordability issues.

There is no shortage of excellent plans. Some argue that the problem is one of discipline and lack of political will. But there is evidence this administration has the political will to execute policies that are in the interest of the people. The broadband plan and other ICT policies are critical in achieving the administration's development agenda.