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Tinubu needs to end his kick-and-follow style of governance 07 Jul 2023

As President-Elect, Bola Tinubu said of his administration: “It is going to be a hard work from day one.” Projecting fidelity to this ideal during his inaugural speech, President Tinubu announced the immediate end of the era of subsidy on Premium Motor Spirit – locally called petrol. Four days later, he announced the appointment of his Chief of Staff, Femi Gbajabiamila, and Secretary to the Government of the Federation, George Akume. Other early decisions of the President included the suspension of the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Godwin Emefiele, and chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Abdulrasheed Bawa; floatation of the naira; and appointment of some advisers.  

The appointments are routine for a new president. But while the removal of petrol subsidy and adoption of a market-based exchange rate are difficult policy decisions, they have been widely canvassed by many stakeholders for years. For making the quick policy calls, Tinubu has been quite decisive where his predecessor had dithered and allowed corrupt abuses.

Nevertheless, mustering political will to take difficult policy decisions is one thing. Implementing such policies to achieve desirable short- to long-term outcomes is another matter altogether. By demonstrating the former and not assuring Nigerians with regard to the latter, Tinubu introduces his federal governance style as “kick and follow.”

Now ditched by modern coaches, the kick-and-follow style of football was originally English. It entailed booting the ball through the air to a targeted teammate, in the anticipation that he would get it. Ironically, it is in the English Premier League (EPL) that Pep Guardiola has been demonstrating the supreme performance of the alternative possession-based tiki-taka football, with his tutored Manchester City winning a treble of the EPL, FA Cup, and UEFA Champions League in the 2022-23 season.

In the many years of mooting the removal of the subsidy, introduction of a social protection programme to cushion the effects of market-based petrol prices was always a major part of the conversation. But when President Tinubu took the decision, he didn’t even have a team in place to design such a programme. In the meantime, the cost of transportation has sharply increased, following approximately 200 percent jump in the pump prices of petrol. This has begun to ripple by driving increases in the prices of food and other goods and services.

The President acknowledges that the removal of subsidy will create temporary hardship – especially for the poor and vulnerable. Indeed, it will further worsen the abject quality of life of well over a hundred million Nigerians. For a government that pledges to lift people out of poverty, this is tantamount to making the problem worse before solving it. This is not a well-considered approach to policymaking. It is not the precept that enabled China to lift over 500 million Chinese out of poverty. Neither does a surgeon carry out a painful procedure first and have an anaesthetic administered on the patient later.

The introduction of the floating exchange rate was not more circumspect. The monetary policy decision, which is exclusively within the statutory mandates of the CBN, played out as an executive marching order. But exchange rate flexibility requires the rule of law to function properly. Concerns about this – coupled with the appointment of a presidential special adviser on “monetary policy” – have swiftly come from market participants and other stakeholders.

This has to be redressed by immediately appointing a new CBN governor to superintend monetary policy. The legitimate interest, or concern, of the President is best served if such an appointee has the right academic and professional profiles. Towards this end, the Senate should act swiftly to end the tenure of Mr. Emefiele. Notwithstanding the financial crimes he may have committed in office, his foray into electoral politics whilst on his job and the failure of the CBN to deliver on its mandates and key programmes under his leadership are solid grounds for his removal.

In addition to the above advice, President Tinubu needs to concentrate on four things in the immediate term. First is forming his cabinet. An enduring public and investor confidence in his administration would be informed by the technocratic profile and inclusiveness of his cabinet. Moreover, his big agenda on poverty reduction and attraction of foreign investments require a whole-of-government approach to succeed.

Second, there is a need to move very fast on recovering public assets that have been corruptly appropriated under the past administration. With over N98.8 trillion budgeted in the past eight years and N65 trillion added to the public debt in what has unfolded as a corruption-ridden environment, enormous funds are out there that need to be recovered into the public treasury.

Third, the President needs to start to signal a strong commitment to nation-building. This includes steps to strengthen the statutory functioning of state institutions, especially the military and the government-wide bureaucracy.

And fourth, Tinubu needs to assure the public that he supports the transparency of the proceedings at the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal and will abide by the final judicial ruling on the 25 February 2023 presidential election while defending his mandate to the full legal extent. This will bolster the legitimacy of his administration if the court also declares him as the winner of the election.

The new administration needs to eschew shooting from the hip. It needs to start to meticulously engineer the policy outcomes it wants to achieve.