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Lessons from Nigeria's 2015 elections for West Africa 08 Jul 2015

Nigeria's presidential and gubernatorial elections in March and April 2015, respectively, were a game-changer for the continent's largest economy. The sentiment, externally and domestically, was unified on the point that the polls were a victory for a peaceful Nigeria and a victory for democracy, regardless of political hues. The peaceful transition from incumbent to opposition could not have been easily predicted. But in fact, the democratic process surprised even the harshest of critics. That said, the build up to the polls was not without challenge. However, the critical issue here is to examine what Nigeria's democratic experience in 2015 means for all the 15 African nations who would have gone to the ballot by the end of the year.

Security Challenge

Questions have been asked as to whether Nigeria was properly prepared for the 2015 elections. Since 1999, Nigeria has held four successive elections. Yet, for journalist Tolu Ogunlesi, the polls came as ''something of a surprise” each time. Indeed, the 2015 polls were originally due to be held on 14 February but were postponed, officially because of security concerns relating to the terrorist insurgency. Indeed, the insurgent activities of Boko Haram have been described by the UN Commissioner for Human Rights, Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, as “a critical human rights situation” in view of the fact that some 15,000 people have been killed by the group.

The government under former President Goodluck Jonathan was often criticised for its misaligned approach to dealing with the crisis, not least of all in its failure to rescue 270 missing schoolgirls abducted by the group in April 2014. But on Election Day, security was visibly an area that the government tried to address. One Lagos-based Songhai Advisory consultant described polling day thus:

“On March 28, April 11, 2015 one could see the ever busy express roads and major highways (like the Third Mainland Bridge) in Lagos fully deserted. Businesses/offices [were] closed down. Soldiers [mounted] road blocks on strategic locations to deter those who may wish to flout the orders. The Policemen manned the polling units and collation centres to enforce law and order”.

Thus, even in spite of the perception of insecurity, Nigeria was still able to push through and hold elections, with the security forces having ensured that there was a certain level of preparedness.

Not unlike Nigeria, the elections in Mali have been postponed from April to October 2015 due to security concerns (the second of such postponement), but this time with the support of the opposition. And given the level of insecurity in the country, it is not clear that the scheduled elections will indeed take place in October. Indeed, the dynamics are more extreme than in Nigeria, with recovery dancing along a fine edge on one side, and violent political/ideological competition on the other. Parties to the macabre game include President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, Tuareg separatists, Islamist militants, France and the broader international community. France is leading an international operation to dislodge militants campaigning for an end to the secular state. Progress is being made but it is slow and tenuous. For example, in recent weeks, the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA), which had previously refused to participate in internationally backed dialogue, added its signature to the Algiers Accord (previously signed by other rebel groups, pro-government armed groups and President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita's government). However, drawing upon Nigeria's example of a security strategy, buttressed by coordinated international and regional support, it may not be implausible for Mali to hold elections even in spite of the palpable insurgent threat.

Against the backdrop of a history of political violence, the Ivorians will also likely take a leaf out of Nigeria's playbook to ensure that come polling day, as many precautionary measures as possible can be taken to ensure that the elections pass off smoothly.

Cote d'Ivoire is currently francophone West Africa's largest economy, with an estimated GDP growth rate of 7.9% for 2015. Large-scale infrastructural spending has been a hallmark of Alassane Ouattara's administration and under his watch, the West African nation has found favour with the investor community. Domestically too, Ouattara appears to have enough political capital to be re-elected.

That notwithstanding, the UN Security Council opted to extend the mandate of its operation in Cote d'Ivoire (UNOCI), as buttressed by the continued occupation of French forces, until 30 June 2016. UNOCI's mandate is to protect civilians, while focusing “on demobilization, disarmament and reintegration of ex-combatants and security-sector reform, with the objective of transitioning security responsibilities to the Government.” The need for a strengthening of the security apparatus in Cote d'Ivoire is important in view of election-related violence and civil conflict witnessed intermittently in the country over the past two decades.

Enabling Opposition

A key component of a maturing democracy is the emergence of a strong opposition and its ability to access the platforms required to disseminate its message. One of the reasons which placed Nigeria's 2015 polls into the 'historic' category was the fact that power changed hands from an incumbent government to the opposition. This was made possible because the opposition was unhindered in its campaign.

In the run-up to Nigeria's polls, there was a strong sense that the outcome would be too close to call. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which had been at the helm of Nigerian politics since the return to multiparty politics in 1999, was clearly intent on holding onto power. But by January 2015, there had been eight defections from the PDP to the All Progressives Congress (APC), citing “manipulation and dissatisfaction”.  For instance, in Adamawa State, PDP defectors reposed their trust in APC candidate of Senator Muhammad Umar Jibrilla Bindow, rather than the PDP candidate Nuhu Ribadu, despite the fact that Ribadu had made a name for himself as the anti-corruption tsar at the helm of Nigeria's Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).

In neighbouring Ghana, the presidential primary elections for the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) were similarly full of intrigue. Yet, in contrast to Nigeria, the primaries for the NPP flag-bearer were held two years before the elections and 18 months prior to the elections for the parliamentary elections. In the presidential primaries, two-time presidential aspirant, Nana Akufo Addo, came through victoriously with an overwhelming victory of 94% of the total votes. His main challenger, Alan Kyerematen, floundered with just 4.95% of the votes, to the surprise of many, given that Kyerematen has in the past benefited from the subtle support of former president, John Agyekum Kufuor, and former Chief of Staff, Kwadwo Mpiani.

With 18 months to go before Ghanaians go to the polls, the visibility of the opposition, and the access afforded to political parties to engage with civil society, mirrors the situation in Nigeria, where social, electronic and print media were used to sensitize the population to such an extent that not even the power of incumbency was enough to oppose the people's choice.

Upholding the Rule of Law

The Nigerian political class may have learnt that ensuring that the rule of law is respected is the way forward for a sustainable democracy. When, in 2006, the then president Olusegun Obasanjo sought to put his hat in the ring for a third term, the clarion call against such a proposal was loud and clear. Fast forward nine years and you have a Nigerian voter population that is tuned in and turned on. When the electoral commission sought to delay the polls, there was muted concern that such a move could lead to civil disturbance of some nature, as Nigerians were keeping close tabs on the government, to ensure that their democratic rights were not infringed. Arguably, the palpable threat that things could reach a boiling point if the new timetable were not adhered to kept the pressure on the authorities to deliver on time.

In Burkina Faso, citizens have worked their way into the political process by standing upon the rights afforded to them by the Constitution. President Blaise Compaore's bid to hold onto power through a constitutional reform process which would have seen him run for a fourth term, adding to his 27-year grip on power, was met with mass protests, in which thousands of people flocked to the streets. The civic activism ultimately led to the Burkinabe legislature abandoning the plan and Compaore resigning and fleeing the country. This should also act as a warning to the current transitional leader, who is mandated to lead the country to the polls this year.

Conclusion

Nigeria's 2015 elections were indeed historic, and it was democracy which was the real winner. It was an imperfect electoral process, but it is visibly a maturing one. Civil society is becoming increasingly demanding, which has indeed given rise to the emergence of credible alternatives to the status quo. Even in the midst of security threats, the population went on to exercise its right to choose its representative leadership. But even if the outcome may not have been the desire of all, there is a sense that the voters' voices were heard. This could be one of the key lessons for all the maturing democracies in the sub-region.