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Foreign policy imperatives for Nigeria’s sustainable development agenda 12 Oct 2018

Nigeria’s foreign policy is in the doldrums. Our foreign ministry is currently comatose. Few people even know who the foreign minister is. Foreign policy has been reduced to occasionally going abroad cap-in-hand, seeking foreign loans and investments. Overnight, Nigeria has returned to debtor status, where a significant proportion of our income is once again mortgaged to debt-servicing.

And yet, this same Nigeria is an amazing country. It is a country teeming with exceptionally energetic and enterprising people; from North to South: from East to West. It is a country highly endowed with resources, both human and material. It is a country, which, just a few years ago, Barack Obama, then-president of the United States, described as a strategic centre of gravity in Africa; even proclaiming the country as the world’s next economic giant.

However, Nigeria has yet to develop a cogent plan and vision according to the new requirements of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The country’s economic management is still handled by people mired in the tried and failed schedules of the past that have led us to the present cul-de-sac. They still tout statistics as reliable indices of development. They tell us how many foreign reserves they have managed to accumulate and expect to receive our commendation.

They base Nigeria’s foreign policy posture on pivots that are not likely to get us anywhere. These include a vaunted fight against insurgency (mainly Boko Haram), which persists in spite of their premature declaration of victory. It includes a boastful fight against corruption, which is mostly fought with megaphones on the airwaves and on the pages of newspapers. It also includes taking bows for the development of infrastructure that exists primarily as promissory notes on paper and provides an excuse for heavy foreign borrowing.


Femi Aribisala, international relations scholar, giving his speech at Financial Nigeria's 10th Anniversary Colloquium

What foreign policy is not

The truth of the matter is that Nigerian foreign-policy makers do not know what foreign-policy should entail. Foreign-policy should not be just about planting embassies in different parts of the world without any coherent agenda for them. Foreign-policy should not just be about fighting against apartheid, without realising any tangible domestic gains from its eradication. Indeed, a foreign policy without domestic dividends is a waste of time. Nigeria can no longer afford such luxury.

Foreign-policy should not be just about being at the forefront of international peace-keeping efforts. Yes, Nigeria is the largest “exporter of peace” in Africa and the fourth largest worldwide. But what has that done for us? What is the point of being a proverbial exporter of peace abroad when there is no peace at home? We cannot give what we don’t have.

Foreign policy is also not just about fighting to become the permanent African member of a reformed United Nations Security Council. Such highfalutin status would get us nowhere beyond providing jobs for one or two Nigerian diplomats in New York. Foreign-policy is about using diplomatic means to promote the interests of the Nigerian people. This simple imperative seems perennially lost on the Nigerian foreign-policy elite. A foreign policy without tangible benefit to the man in the street in Nigeria is a waste of time.

Foreign policy of the Buhari administration

As observed, the Buhari government goes everywhere preaching the gospel of anti-corruption. The idea seems to be to convince foreign governments that Nigeria is now serious about dealing with corruption, so please come and deal with Nigeria. However, anti-corruption cannot be a foreign policy platform. If Nigeria is corrupt, it is corrupt. If it is not, it is not. You don’t go around saying your country is anti-corruption and expect foreign nations to take you at your word.

But nobody believes Nigeria’s current anti-corruption rhetoric, not even Nigerians. Foreigners don’t have to listen to Nigeria government’s propaganda about anti-corruption. They confront Nigeria’s corruption first thing at Nigerian airports.

Transparency International continues to rate Nigeria low on the anti-corruption index; even worse than under Goodluck Jonathan. In 2014, Nigeria was ranked 136th most corrupt country out of 178 ranked countries. But today, it is ranked 148th out of 180 countries surveyed. So how does preaching anti-corruption help us under these circumstances?

Then there is the nagging issue of security. The government claims it has defeated Boko Haram, but the insurgency has this tendency to rise from the dead. As a matter of fact, victory parades on the defeat of Boko Haram have become particularly dangerous in their tendency to provoke new dare-devil Boko Haram attacks. One thing is certain, Boko Haram might have been degraded, but it is still alive and kicking; creating systematic havoc in Nigeria’s North-east.

Moreover, the Boko Haram insurgency has been eclipsed by another deadlier enemy; that of the Fulani herdsmen. These have gone on the rampage, maiming and killing innocent Nigerians with the government acting as mere onlookers and bystanders. There is yet another development that bodes ill for Nigeria’s foreign relations: the attacks on churches and the killing of Christians in the North. So many churches have been destroyed and Christians killed without recourse in ways and manners that suggest Christian-cleansing.

Inside-out foreign policy

There is need for a paradigm shift in the worldview of the Nigerian leadership. While we certainly have difficulty convincing non-Nigerians that we are not a corrupt country, they don’t need convincing that Nigeria’s greatest asset is its people. Nigerians are everywhere, working creditably in different capacities in different countries. The Nigerian is a bundle of talent that excels in so many different capacities. Countries the world over can attest to this.

There are so many of us, currently estimated at virtually 200 million. The United Nations projects Nigeria’s population to be 389 million by 2050, rivalling that of the United States at 403 million. By the end of the century, the U.N. projects that Nigeria’s population would be between 900 million and 1 billion, nearing that of China which would by then be the second most populous country in the world after India.

What we need to do therefore is to invest in Nigerians and then use our foreign policy to promote the country. Foreigners already know that Nigerians are energetic, enterprising and resourceful. Let us build on this from inside out, then leverage on it in our foreign policy.

This means we have to transform our education system; synchronizing education to industry needs. We cannot see job-creation as the government creating artificial jobs. Job-creation must mean producing the manpower to suit the needs. Apprenticeship at companies and industrial plants must be synchronized with vocational training in schools.

New ambassadors

Nigeria needs new people at the forefront of our foreign policy. We cannot afford the luxury of having a sick and ailing man as Nigeria’s chief ambassador. This also means our president cannot go abroad and tell the world Nigerian youths are lazy and irresponsible. We cannot continue to use men like the president, who are yesterday’s men to project a new Nigeria.

We need new leadership and we need new ambassadors. We don’t have to look too far afield for some of these. Nollywood is becoming a thriving industry at home and abroad. With a clear-sighted vision and planning, it can become a powerful instrument of Nigeria’s foreign policy. Some of the new darlings of Nollywood can also easily act formally or informally as Nigeria’s ambassadors. People like Stella Damascus and Mike Ezuruonye come to mind.

So also are the new generation of Nigerian musicians currently making waves, such as Tuface and D’banj. And then there are our internationally-acclaimed footballers like Nwankwo Kanu and J.J. Okocha.

The number of Nigerians living abroad is now estimated at over 17 million. That is the population of some countries in the world. The “ethnicity of capital” means these Nigerians can not only be relied on for increasing levels of remittances back home, but also become veritable ambassadors of Nigeria abroad.

Labour abundant foreign-policy

Nigeria’s population is not only big; it is getting bigger by the day. This means we are going to have a lot more mouths to feed in the medium-term. Therefore, we must become the bread-basket of Africa. We need to start making serious investment in agriculture. That means mechanised large-scale agriculture.

It also means we can, if we are serious, have a manpower advantage. Many western countries are getting more and more labour-deficient. Angela Merkel was not just being altruistic in allowing 1 million displaced persons into Germany in 2017. The German economy needs the people, so she imported them.

Labour-deficient first world countries must be encouraged to come and set up shop in labour-abundant Nigeria. This is what happened in China. We are already addressing this somewhat by setting up free trade zones in Nigeria. But that is somewhat putting the cart before the horse.

Sheer numbers are not enough. What we need is skilled economic manpower. Nigerians need to be educated and trained so we can operate in modern factory settings.

The Nigerian government’s Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) identifies, “investing in our people” as one of three “strategic objectives.” But the “execution priorities” do not fully reflect the needs of the people. The ERGP prioritises physical capital over human capital.

We need to develop an enterprise culture. This will not happen as long as 99% of micro businesses have no access to the capital market. It cannot happen, as long as interest rates remain as high as 27 percent.

No country struggling to escape into economic and technological modernity has done so where interest rates on business borrowing or any borrowing for that matter starts at a whopping 27 percent.

Nigeria first

Nigerians must be in full control of the Nigerian economy. If Donald trump’s America is now preaching “America first,” Nigeria would be foolish not to insist on “Nigeria first.” We cannot be last abroad and last at home as well. We should not be carried away by grandiose notions that we are the largest black country in the world and, therefore, should bend over backwards for blacks everywhere. Nigerians must be given priority.

It was foolish the way we surrendered the Nigerian mobile-phone network to MTN, a South African company, by initially penalising Nigeria’s Globacom. With currently over 100 million mobile-phone users, Nigeria remains MTN's biggest cash cow. The company now makes over $2.5 billion in profits annually from Nigeria alone.

There is a new scramble going on for Africa among the European nations and China. This explains the new interest in Nigeria. It is not surprising that suddenly, President Macron of France paid us a visit. Then Theresa May of Britain followed suit. Then Angela Merkel of Germany came calling. The reason for this is not far-fetched.

Britain made the greatest blunder in its history by voting to leave the European Union. As a result, companies and financial assets have been leaving Britain by the droves. There is increasing likelihood that Britain will end up leaving the EU without an exit agreement. This so-called “hard Brexit” will spell disaster for Britain. As a result, Britain is trying to cobble together extra-European trade alliances. One possible area, is in the Commonwealth.

Nigeria must not be taken in by these new entreaties. Since the United States, the chief apostle of globalisation is now singing a different tune, it is time for Nigeria to also say no to the classical requirements of trade liberalisation that have hitherto been imposed on us. We can no longer afford to be a dumping ground for European goods. We have to build up our own productive capacities, if necessary, behind high tariff walls.

That also means we must be determined to transform ECOWAS from a peace-keeping and peace-enforcing organisation to one truly devoted to the promotion of regional economic integration. We must fast-track west African regional integration, primarily by the lowering of tariffs.

ECOWAS is our natural habitat that should provide a ready regional market for Nigerian manufacturers. Substantial and co-ordinated public investment in infrastructure in ECOWAS is the prerequisite of Nigeria’s medium-term interest in the sub-regional market. In the long-term however, the answer lies in the creation of an ECOWAS currency, or the establishment of a West African Unit of Account, which guarantees full convertibility.

ECOWAS cooperation is also necessary for Nigeria’s security from cross-border insurgency. Common problems of climate change and desert encroachment can also be addressed collectively.

Cap on foreign borrowing

Obasanjo brought about a transition from Nigeria’s reliance on foreign aid and debt, to Nigeria’s attraction of foreign direct investment. Astute diplomacy combined debt-repayment with debt write-offs and forgiveness. As a result, 60% of Nigeria’s debt was written off: 40% paid by buy-backs. In 16 years in power, the PDP not only cleared Nigeria’s debts of some $36 billion, it borrowed a total of only N6 trillion.

However, in only 3 years, the APC has returned Nigeria to debtor status and borrowed a whopping 10.2 trillion naira. It is absolutely imperative that this be contained. As one commentator says: “What we are doing is borrowing from our future.” This is irresponsible and must not be allowed to continue.

Femi Aribisala was the Special Adviser to Professor Bolaji Akinyemi as Foreign Minister of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. He holds a PhD in International Relations from Oxford University. He also writes a popular column on the Christian faith in one of Nigeria's newspapers. This article is an abridged version of his speech at Financial Nigeria magazine’s 10th anniversary colloquium.