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Why Nigeria should reject Morocco's ECOWAS membership bid 21 Jul 2017

Since Nigeria's independence in 1960, a major component of the country's foreign policy has been the promotion of African integration and unity among African states. This “Afrocentric” policy motivated past Nigerian governments – military or democratic – to actively support pro-independence struggles in Angola, Namibia, and Mozambique as well as the anti-apartheid movement in South Africa.
    
Nigeria also played a key role in the formation of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which in recent decades has helped to promote peace in the sub-region and end civil wars in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Senegal, and The Gambia.

But in all its laudable efforts to promote the well-being of other African countries, Nigeria has often left itself open to one serious charge: that the country apparently neglects its own national interest while defending the stability of the region and its member-states. This unwillingness to promote its self-interest is playing out in Nigeria's current tacit support of Morocco's quest to acquire full membership of the ECOWAS. By backing – or not blocking – Morocco's bid to join the premier club of West African countries, Nigeria looks set to harm the development of its economy, reduce its geographic influence, and endanger its national security while advancing those of Morocco, ostensibly by allowing a bigger ECOWAS.

Given Nigeria's status as Africa's largest economy and West Africa's largest industrial hub, the country has been the greatest beneficiary of the economic integration of West African countries under ECOWAS. Investors and businesses regard Nigeria, with its $333 billion economy (GDP of 2016), as the gateway to the West African region. The country provides easier access to a regional export market of over 370 million people. Michel Arrion, the European Union Ambassador to Nigeria and West Africa, has even advised the Nigerian government to view the West African market as an extension of its domestic economy.

But the admission of Morocco, which has a GDP of $110 billion, into ECOWAS will alter forever Nigeria's vantage economic position in West Africa. The North African country will immediately become the second largest economy in the region, way ahead of Cote d'Ivoire (GDP of $34 billion), Ghana (GDP of $30 billion), and Senegal (GDP of $19 billion).

As Morocco leverages on ECOWAS' trade liberalization programme, the North African country will make significant in-roads into key markets – with goods such as cars, insulated wire, and fertilizers – mostly at Nigeria's expense. Currently, Nigeria alone accounts for 76 percent of total ECOWAS trade followed by Ghana (9.2 percent) and Cote d'Ivoire (8.64) percent.

If Morocco is granted full ECOWAS membership, Nigeria's current dominant position will be weakened and the country's export market will be capped below the current level instead of growing. This negative development for the country becomes even more worrisome considering Nigeria's renewed quest to diversify its economy away from reliance on oil exports.

Owing to Nigeria's economic heft, most West African countries regard the country as a “big brother” and are receptive to Nigeria's influence on most matters affecting the region. This deference to Nigeria, and the influence the country wields, could be seen in the crucial role President Muhammadu Buhari played in Gambia with the removal of Yahaya Jammeh from office. President Jammeh had refused to step down after losing an election. Nigeria similarly intervened in Burkina Faso, where democracy was restored after a military coup threatened to derail general elections.

Nigeria had incurred humongous cost in maintaining its influence and helping to stabilize the West African region. The country has spent over $10 billion in various peacekeeping missions in West Africa. Many Nigerian soldiers also paid the ultimate price in the peace-keeping efforts.

But as Morocco becomes fully integrated into ECOWAS, Nigeria's hard-earned influence will undoubtedly weaken as the North African country pulls its weight and pursues its interests within the regional bloc. With the relatively stronger economy of Morocco compared to that of any other member countries of ECOWAS, save Nigeria, the smaller ECOWAS member States may dilute their support for Nigeria to curry favour from Morocco.

Over the years, Nigeria has occupied major positions of power and influence in African and international multilateral organizations, which have helped the country canvass for aid and investment from foreign donors. These powerful positions – which Nigeria merited because of its regional influence – may soon be threatened, however, if Morocco eventually joins ECOWAS.

Nigeria's former Minister for External  Affairs, Bolaji Akinyemi, buttresses this point by arguing that Nigeria stands to lose both appointive and elective posts in the African Union, the United Nations, and other international institutions because of a weakened position in a Morocco-included ECOWAS.

Professor Akinyemi asked rhetorically: “When elective and appointive posts and resources are being allocated by international institutions, does Morocco now benefit from the West African quota?” He added: “Elections to seats at the Security Council, the World Court, various commissions of the United Nations are distributed on a regional basis. Morocco, as a member of the Arab League, will benefit from the Arab League quota, and then have another bite at the West African quota.”

Given Morocco's geographic location and its membership of the Arab League of Nations, the North African country could unnecessarily politicize ECOWAS and drag Nigeria and other member countries into the Middle East quagmire.

A glimpse of this scenario was seen when King Mohammed VI of Morocco apparently dragged the regional bloc into the Israeli-Palestine crisis by cancelling his plans to attend an ECOWAS summit in June because of the scheduled attendance of Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. (Morocco and Israel share very little diplomatic ties as the former is an active supporter of Palestine). Some ECOWAS member countries reportedly reduced their participation at the summit, possibly in deference to King Mohammed, who ought to have participated for the first time in an ECOWAS summit. Nigeria and other ECOWAS countries are grappling with many problems and they shouldn't be alienating potential trade partners because of Morocco's involvement in the Middle East.

Morocco is one of the main recruitment hubs of jihadist groups, mainly ISIS and al-Nusra, according to the Daily Sabah. It is estimated that Morocco has a contingent of about 1,500 fighters in Iraq and Syria. These radicalized fighters pose enormous security threats to the North African country as they return home notwithstanding the government's efforts to contain the risks.

With the freedom of movement granted under ECOWAS, Nigeria and other countries – which are still battling Boko Haram – may face a renewed risk of terrorism if Morocco joins the regional bloc. Jihadist fighters of Moroccan origin could easily travel to Northern Nigeria and stir up terrorist elements against the Nigerian state, causing the loss of lives and properties.

That Morocco seems to be gaining ground in its bid to become an ECOWAS member state without encountering fierce opposition from the Nigerian government speaks of a foreign policy morass under President Buhari. For instance, Nigeria offered a muted response to the recent xenophobic killings of her citizens in South Africa. There was also a public spat between Abike Dabiri, the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Foreign Affairs and the Diaspora, and Geoffrey Onyema, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, over the US government's recently revised immigration policies and its impact on Nigerian citizens. Furthermore, the president's pivot towards China – with the signing of numerous billion-dollar deals and currency swap agreements – has so far failed to yield any results.

This insipid foreign policy landscape must not continue to degenerate, muddling Nigeria's response to Morocco's ECOWAS schemes. Nigeria should welcome Morocco's efforts to expand relations with countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to assist the North African country wean itself off dependence on Europe. In this regard, Nigeria has already done its bit by voting in favour of Morocco rejoining the African Union after a 33-year absence. However, Nigeria must not be naïve towards Morocco's sly bid to join ECOWAS. The government should reject Morocco's advances because it is against Nigeria's national and regional interests.

Chibuike Oguh is Associate Editor, Frontier Markets, at Financial Nigeria.