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The frenzied reaction to Boko Haram’s new video of Chibok girls 16 Aug 2016

Nigerians, we are a very impressionable people. Knowing this, Boko Haram has just released a ‘new’ video showing the Chibok girls; some alive and others dead. The video has sparked frenzied reactions, with some zealots running to the international media to remonstrate. That is exactly what Boko Haram wants. But hopefully, the government would not be railroaded into taking actions that would further imperil the lives of the abducted girls.

The Germans have been quite proactive in preventing the glorification of terrorists by frenzied media coverage of attacks in the country. Media blackouts of the names and photographs of terrorists have recently been tried in France. Sociopaths, including terrorists, are known to seek media glorification. In several known cases, this was the strong motivation for committing their heinous crimes.  

Much of the latest frenzy in Nigeria has called out President Muhammadu Buhari. On the need to rescue the abducted Chibok girls, he has failed; just like his predecessor did. But if this is true, doesn’t that mean we have to wait for a new government in 2019 to rescue the girls? And how are we sure the future government will succeed where the last two predecessors failed?

It serves no good purpose to be dismissive of everything. Most definitely, President Buhari has made remarkable progress with the fight against Boko Harm. Under this Commander-in-Chief, the insurgency has been degraded. We no longer have Boko Haram killing with rapid frequency -- and almost at will -- as it was doing up to about a year ago. The military has shown gallantry, once it was unshackled to take on the insurgents.

It is improbable, that the fight against Boko Haram would exclude the rescue of the Chibok girls. This is precisely because as long as they remain in captivity, we have yet to win the war. But it doesn’t mean we are not winning some vital battles in this difficult war against the terrorists, who see their abductees as prized assets and use them as human shields and bargaining chips.

Wrong move

The abduction of the Chibok girls will ultimately prove to be the downfall of Boko Haram. It already stirred global angst against the insurgents. As long as Boko Haram have (some of) the Chibok girls, it has a shield, granted that the military would prioritise the rescue of the girls alive. But as long as the girls remain in captivity, Boko Haram will remain under fire up to when its last man standing bites the bullet or surrenders. But that time will come faster, when it becomes clear that it is safer to bombard where the girls are being held, when the location(s) is/are known.

In every hostage or abduction situation, the trained security operatives move in when it is safe to do so or it is the less damaging option. The decision is usually aided by intelligence and a fair understanding of the scenarios that would play out with a rescue effort. Apparently, there has been a failure of intelligence so far, including the purported help of the countries that boast they have the wherewithal, in rescuing the girls. Such failures abound in the fight against terrorists around the world. But a slip up by the terrorists is sure to happen. This latest video might just provide a clue or a new momentum against the terrorists.  

Placing the wrong bets

It is part of our impulsiveness that we are wont to place heavy bets on what did not happen. We are so sure that if President Goodluck Jonathan mobilized rescue efforts very quickly when the Chibok girls were abducted they would have been rescued. But generalising on the basis of statistical data that tends to support this view can sometime prove fatal. We must not forget that what we are confronted with is a relatively new phenomenon. Boko Haram, like other Islamist jihadists around the world, is both irrational and murderous.

President Buhari promoted and benefited from the peddling of effectual quick rescue efforts for the Chibok girls. He promised to rescue the girls within the first one hundred days of his administration. One might, therefore, say he could jolly well be a victim of his own chicanery. But when the consideration is the country, and ultimately our lives as Nigerians, it is useless to say it serves him right. It is always better to ensure our reactions don’t make a bad situation worse.

Boko Haram claims in the latest video that the military killed the Chibok girls during one of its raids. Whether this is true or not has yet to be ascertained. Nevertheless, the deaths highlight the peril of launching an attack at the positions where the girls are being held when the locations become known. By having the bodies of the girls it has held for more than two years strewn on the canvas of the video, Boko Haram insurgents displayed a dangerous lack of emotion and respect for the lives of the girls. This suggests, the terrorists might have killed the girls themselves, just to serve its propaganda needs.

Standing with the grieving parents

Ideally, we should not need a video by the terrorists to prompt us to continue to agonise with both the abducted girls and their parents. But definitely, Boko Haram wants to prompt our agony. It would want to see that its propaganda is effective. It would want to damage the current government, just as it did the previous one. Yet, any move that is inspired by emotions and not strategy, in rescuing the Chibok girls, could end disastrously.

However, while the government could be discreet with military information on the progress with the rescue efforts, it owes it to the parents of the girls to regularly let them know government is working for them and the release of their children. What would stand condemnable would be the shirking of this responsibility. We as fellow country-people should also not forget to have these parents and their children in our prayers.

A reminder

So we are reminded that President Goodluck Jonathan could not rescue the Chibok girls because he was uninterested, weak and overwhelmed by the politics of the insurgency of Boko Haram and the abduction. But President Buhari is interested, strong and has the political leverage, yet Boko Haram remains subdued but not wiped out, and the Chibok girls are still in captivity.

Let us also consider that the militancy in the Niger Delta has not been immediately crushed, although President Buhari wanted to crush it. Indeed, his rash effort to respond militarily endangered the country’s oil economy. With the putative strong-willed and incorruptible Buhari, the country is in greater danger today than it was during the administration of Jonathan.

This shows the country is far more complex than the casual analysts and the campaigners understand it to be, bar deliberate mischief and opportunism. The truth is that if General Buhari and the northern oligarchy had supported the anti-insurgency efforts of President Jonathan, Boko Haram would probably not have been able to develop its murderous capabilities. In that case, perhaps, there would have been little to propel Buhari to office. But then, because he didn’t put the country first, above his presidential ambition and other considerations, his presidency too is being undermined by a problem he had refused to help solve.

We have to recognise that we face a complex governance challenge in Nigeria, which is, however, solvable. Given the lack of support for President Jonathan by the northern leaders, he definitely couldn’t have acted different from what he did. A country does not go into a war divided, except a civil war. Today, President Buhari remains restrained, even if the military capability is there, in bombing the hell out of the Niger Delta Avengers. (Apologies to the ultimate demagogue, Donald Trump).

Indeed, it is high time we recognised that our challenges should always serve as rallying points in our efforts at building our nation, people and the economy. But because we have continued to accentuate divisions, our challenges have remained; they are even becoming harder to solve. But to have a chance at overcoming the challenges, two things are important. We must recognise the progress we are making. And we must seek to improve on the progress.

The important lesson here is that ultimately, there is no benefit for politicians who exploit Nigeria’s security challenges for their political advantage. They simply cut off their noses to spite their faces because that advantage only proves to be temporary. The civil society movement should not join that bandwagon. The media and civil society campaigners should be more circumspect in their reaction to this Boko Haram’s propaganda.