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Propaganda trumps performance in Buhari administration 05 Jun 2017

The administration of President Muhammadu Buhari niftily crafted three strategies by which it engaged with the Nigerian public at its second anniversary. The first involved peddling the worn-out narrative that there was such an enormous dysfunction in the previous administration that needed to be fixed for the country to make any progress. The second approach required telling Nigerians to be patient. The administration went bullish with its final strategy, proclaiming some moderate achievements and half-baked proposals in a manner that simply insulted our intelligence.    
    
The last administration ended on May 29, 2015. Yet, on the second anniversary of the current administration, Acting President Yemi Osinbajo told Nigerians that “much of 2016 was spent clearing the mess we inherited and putting the building blocks together for the future of our dreams.” Osinbajo – who gave a speech on Democracy Day in the absence of Buhari, who is in London on the second spell of his medical vacations in 2017 – has been enjoying spectacular adulation during the president's absence. However, it is important to point out to the Acting President that while the government was busy decluttering the mess it inherited, it has created an economic muddle that would take a long time for the country to recover from.    

This narrative of blaming the past government has fostered the fallacy that the current recession was inevitable. In the Buhari administration, propaganda trumps performance. Therefore, the fact that ineptitude played a huge role in the recession – as well as it protraction – is completely ignored by a large number of Nigerians who still support the government. Indeed, the learning curve became steep for the new administration when oil prices went on a precipitous fall towards the end of 2015. But the situation exposed the lack of coordination in the government, which could not provide a response by way of an economic blueprint until March 7, 2017, almost two years after Buhari was declared president-elect on March 31, 2015. The substance of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) is a separate issue entirely.

Patience has become an expensive commodity that many Nigerians can no longer afford. The sooner the Buhari administration gets its ducks in a row, the better for the country. A few days before the administration commemorated its second anniversary, Special Adviser on Media and Publicity to the President, Femi Adesina, said it was premature to judge the performance of the government that was barely two years into a four-year term. This statement would not have been extremely unfair if more than half the population of Nigerians living on less than $1.90 a day could see what the government is doing as a response to their grinding poverty. Many of these people slipped below this threshold of extreme poverty during the last two years.

Nigeria's unemployment rate jumped from 8.2% in the second quarter of 2015 to 13.9% in Q3 2016, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. As the economy remained in contraction in the subsequent two quarters, we can expect job insecurity to have increased. Meanwhile, the government's intervention efforts have achieved more blusters than substance.

Osinbajo said the National Social Investment Programmes (N-SIP) – which he called "the most ambitious in the history of the country" – engaged 200,000 unemployed graduates. The Home-Grown School Feeding component of the programme has employed no fewer than 12,000 cooks. Despite the operationalization of the N-SIP at an enormous cost of N500 billion in the 2016 budget (the same amount is earmarked for the programme in the 2017 budget) it's outcome would hardly make a dent on the country's social welfare challenges. Part of the reasons it might not achieve the desired outcome are weaknesses in the implementation mechanisms. Nevertheless, the socio-economic reality will always be muddled by the rhetoric of the APC-led government. Partisanship and subjective confidence will perpetuate the illusion of performance.

Real evidence of the performance of this administration over the past two years have provided the bellwether for what would not just be an under-achieved presidency at full-term, but also one of the worst administrations in the history of Nigeria. As it currently stands, the policies of the government are utterly bereft of confidence. For instance, in disapproving the ERGP, the IMF said, “stronger macroeconomic policies are urgently needed to rebuild confidence and foster an economic recovery.” I bet the administration would beg to differ on this judgement and that of investors who have yet to return to the country as foreign direct investment dwindles.

In his Democracy Day speech, the Acting President talked about the Nigerian dream. What exactly is this dream and what does it entail? How do we aim to achieve the greatness he so forcefully spoke about? What is certain is that we cannot arrive at that desired destination under the current uncertain climate largely caused by the current administration. The indefinite absence of the substantive president, Muhammadu Buhari, is a hindrance in advancing towards the avowed national destination.