Jide Akintunde, Managing Editor/CEO, Financial Nigeria International Limited

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Obasanjo's failed third term pushed Nigeria downhill 09 Aug 2016

Donald Trump's campaign says victory for Hillary Clinton in the November 2016, US presidential election would be tantamount to a third term for President Barack Obama. Indeed, President Obama was on the campaign rostrum with Clinton on July 5th, at the Charlotte Convention Center, North Carolina. His presidential diary is expected to feature many more campaign events to sway voters in favour of his former Secretary of State and candidate of the Democratic Party.
    
The legacy of a president can come under vicious attack by a successor from the opposition party. This is a major downside of a two-party system which fosters sharp ideological division. Donald Trump poses the extremity of this downside risk to Obama. Moreover, the far-right views of the Republican candidate signal danger to the democratic ethos of the country, as well as its power and trade relations with the rest of the world. It behoves President Obama to avert these perils, by supporting the candidate that will preserve and further the achievements of his administration as well as the values of the country.

The world has known inspirational leaders who secured regime elongation and or “third term” in order to extend their run of great performances and preserve their legacies. Singapore's first Prime Minister, the legendary Lee Kuan Yew, ruled for 31 years. His succession plan culminated in his son becoming the third prime minister of the country. Rwandans decided last December to provide President Paul Kagame a chance at third term by lifting the constitutional limit of two terms.  

However, President Olusegun Obasanjo failed in his bids for a third term in 2007. He couldn't secure a constitutional self-succession. As an after-thought, he hand-picked the ailing Umaru Yar'Adua as his successor. President Yar'Adua died in office three years into his administration. But before his death, he wasted no time to dismantle Obasanjo's legacy, reversing a lot of his predecessor’s policies, including the privatisation of the state-owned refineries. Valid contracts that were signed by the administration of President Obasanjo were cancelled by President Yar'Adua.

By no means is Obasanjo the father of the orphaned democratic Nigeria. But in many respects, his government provided this democratic dispensation the critical turning-points in institutional revitalisation and economic management. He instituted the SERVICOM charter that enables the modicum of service delivery and organisation in the civil service till date. His administration set up or strengthened the frontline regulatory institutions and agencies that carry out government's businesses.

No policy has rivalled the successes of the auction of mobile phone licences in 2001 and the banking industry consolidation of 2004 – 2005. Indeed, the privatisation of the generation and distribution assets of the state power monopoly by the administration of President Goodluck Jonathan in 2013 has proved to be less than second-best in terms of outcomes.

In the sphere of fiscal management, Obasanjo's achievements remain unmatched. He built fiscal savings for the country; removed the debt overhang of the Paris and London Clubs of creditors through the debt buyback of 2005; and the Debt Management Office he instituted turned around the country's public debt management, while fostering a vibrant domestic bond market. What's more, he established the institutional frameworks for fighting corruption and financial crimes in the country.

There is so much even a most-competent and well-intentioned president can achieve in eight years. But with Obasanjo's failure to secure an effective “third term” – either by constitutional self-succession or a worthy successor – the country has been on a downward spiral since his exit from office in May 2007.

At the inauguration of the current administration of President Muhammadu Buhari, the country had reversed from fiscal discipline and savings to indiscipline and profligacy. Whereas Obasanjo spread key appointments to represent the diversity in the body politic, Yar'Adua made lopsided national appointments in favour of the north. That has now come to a head under the incumbent President Buhari.

Obasanjo left the Nigerian economy in the hands of competent technocrats, who instilled investors' confidence in the economy. Today, Nigeria has an economic and currency crises. A shambolic economic management has provoked investor apathy, worsening the effect of low oil prices.

Obasanjo's legacy did not endure because of the strategic mistake of his third term bid. Given the lever of the president in sharing government's revenue and the sheer geopolitical tension that creates, self-succession was never going to work. It would appear that President Obasanjo – who is very impressed with himself – later thought the imposition of a weak leadership was the best way to preserve his influence on Nigerian governance. But even the rotation of power between the north and the south, which he held in sanctity, became compromised because his successor died in office. Vice President Goodluck Jonathan thereafter took over as a southern president who was viewed as usurping the presidential tenure of the north. Realignment of a functional power rotation is now a huge challenge for the country.

Protecting the presidential legacy of a positive leadership is of utmost importance. However, even an uninspiring leadership is conceivably not without any area of positive impacts. The areas of positive performance need to be advanced by the successive leadership.

In this regard, President Buhari needs to guard his anti-corruption agenda. Intrinsic to anticorruption are some of the values the country needs to survive and thrive. Although Nigerians quibble at his anticorruption, rightly because it is evidently targeted at the opposition party and it lacks strategic foresight, it doesn't mean the populace outrightly rejects anticorruption.

It is an open secret that President Buhari harbours corrupt elements in his government. Besides, the warp and woof of the ruling APC party is corruption. If Buhari continues to provide rote denial of this, the corrupt elements will hijack the looming succession politics. If that happens, his anticorruption legacy would become toast.

With Buhari looking more like a single term president, not least because of his age, he needs to make anticorruption a plausible, enduring legacy of his administration. Over the medium- to long-term, Nigeria needs to leverage on his anticorruption mantra. Therefore, he needs to avoid the succession mistake of President Obasanjo, and not erode a tenable legacy.